US Open 2011 Women - 25 Aug 2011

US Open 2011 Women

It’s only been a few years since Justine Henin was making 4 grand slam finals a year.  But those hoary days of 5 years ago may as well be paleozoic.  When she retired (the first time) the hierarchy at the top destabilized to an unprecedented degree.  Our yearend #1’s since have been Jankovic, Serena, and Wozniacki, with stints by Ivanovic and Safina.  The 14 majors played since Justine walked out before the 2008 French have featured 8 different winners with Serena claiming 5 titles and Clijsters 3.  A reasonable argument could be made that Serena has been the yearend #1 in each of the last 3 years – she has probably been the world’s best female player during that time.  But after a year long layoff, she could not find her form quickly enough at Wimbledon to defend her crown there.  Since then, she has looked both imperious and hungry, winning two tournaments on North American hard courts this summer and leaving the third by default for a toe injury that will have allowed her to rest nicely for the big game in New York.

Can anyone stop Serena?

First Quarter

After a miserable early summer I thought Wozniacki would probably round into form on summer hardcourts and be a serious threat at this year’s US Open.  Her draw is not particularly tough but after sprinting to 6 titles by spring and holding 10 titles in the year to that point, she has fallen off badly.  The talented #29 Gajdosova (interim Groth) is a possible 3R opponent and trouble could definitely be afoot in the 4^th round from the streaky Hantuchova #21 or Kuznetsova #15.  In the quarters Caro could face #10 Petkovic, #18 Vinci (winner of 3 titles this year), or #6 Li – all of whom are having career years. 

Li is enormously dangerous, capable of beating even an in-form Serena, and may now have enough distance from her French Open triumph to settle down mentally for another deep slam run.  Based on summer form, Petkovic may be the most dangerous player here.  But for whatever reason, Wozniacki seems to find her groove in Queens.  Can she get it back?

Petkovic def Hantuchova

Second Quarter

THE match we are all waiting for is the potential 3^rd rounder between Azarenka and Serena Williams.  It is a shame they would meet so soon.  Serena has been running in first place as the bookies favourite and Victoria in 3^rd.  Really this should be a semi-final.  But fate and Serena’s ranking have intervened and this match may very well decide the quarter.  Azarenka has been steadily improving all year and her breakthrough to a GS semi at Wimbledon was both overdue and welcome.  Meanwhile Serena has looked positively starving and is devouring matches and players with her best ferocity.  It’s been over a year since she last hoisted GS hardware and that seems too long for her internal clock.

In the other half of this quarter Jankovic #11 and Schiavone #7 could battle it out, unless Pavlyuchenkova #17 can have her way.  All of these could be serious threats – Schiavone has big game, Pavlyuchenkova is obviously talented (if not yet accomplished), and Jankovic showed glimpses of her old self during a hot streak in Cincinnati.  But against the fire power in the top half of this quarter, their chances evaporate faster than alcohol on a cactus.

SWilliams def Jankovic

Third Quarter

Every time a new grand slam champion comes along, especially a young one, there’s a surge of expectation that she will become the new dominant #1.  However it is too early to foist this upon Petra Kvitova #5.  She may settle into #1 status eventually, but so far, her inconsistency reminds me more of a Kuznetsova then an Henin.  Only time will tell if she has the mind to harness that big game of hers over extended periods.  She could be in for a tough battle with Agnieszka Radwanska #12 in 4R if they both make it that far.  Radwanska looked very strong this summer until sidelined by a shoulder injury.

In the bottom half, Peng #13 and Goerges #19 are having breakout years but will have their hands full with heavily favoured #3 seed, Maria Sharapova.  A final at Wimbledon and a title in Cincinnati show that Maria is back near the peak of her returning, ground-stroking, and mental powers.  Only the serve still seems vulnerable and her proclivity to go on extended streaks of losing serve.  However, she should be too tough for this group.

Sharapova def ARadwanska

Fourth Quarter

The unseeded player no one wants to face has shown up in slot #118 of the draw in the person of Venus Williams.  So little is known of Venus’ form.  She lost at Wimbledon to Pironkova for the second straight year, so some rust is to be expected but if she can play her way into form she is always deadly and her opponents will be quaking at the thought of playing her.  She could meet Wimbledon semifinalist Lisicki #22 in the 2^nd round, by no means an easy match for either player.  R3 could bring up the hard-hitting Cibulkova #14, and R4 could present #2 seed, Zvonareva.  Venus certainly has her hands full.  Zvonareva showed some hints of regaining last summer’s form by winning in Azerbaijan and making the semis in Cincinnati but she has a treacherous road ahead.  The top half features Bartoli #8, Stosur #9, and Petrova #24.  Both Bartoli and Stosur have looked strong this summer but have had trouble winning the big ones.

Bartoli def Zvonareva

Semis

I expect that whoever comes out of the first quarter (and it is by no means certain) will be overwhelmed by Serena

SWilliams def Petkovic

Although Bartoli has looked strong at times and her game is well-suited to New York hard courts, Sharapova looks like a woman on a mission to regain her form and find her place once again at the top.

Sharapova def Bartoli

Final

Of course upsets can happen, but it will be a significant surprise to me if Sharapova and Serena do not make the final weekend.  They seem head and shoulders above the field right now in potency, form, and desire.  But who will succeed?  They are both powerful and can blast winners from anywhere.  Maria may actually be a consistently harder hitter.  But Serena is undoubtedly a better mover and all-around athlete.  Maria has an amazing ability to break serve with scathing returns and can beat most other players without needing to hold serve all the time.  But that will not be enough against the best server in the game just as it wasn’t against Kvitova in the Wimbledon final.

SWilliams def Sharapova

Average odds from bookies.com 25Aug2011

1	Williams, S	2.46
2	Sharapova, M	6.26
3	Kvitova, P	10.31
4	Azarenka, V	11.06
5	Zvonareva, V	15.67
6	Wozniacki, C	17.36
7	Li, N	17.83
8	Lisicki, S	25.61
9	Radwanska, A	35.83
10	Petkovic, A	36.06
10	Stosur, S	36.06
12	Williams, V	36.17
13	Jankovic, J	37.61
14	Bartoli, M	41.06
15	Kuznetsova, S	69.06
16	Ivanovic, A	75.33
17	Pavlyuchenkova, A	80.50
18	Goerges, J	85.76
19	Hantuchova, D	92.33
20	Schiavone, F	109.50
21	Peng, S	114.86
22	Petrova, N	115.27
23	Wickmayer, Y	125.31
24	Cibulková, D	143.87