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State of Tennis - Women - 15 Jul 2011

I suppose I am not the casual observer who wants clearly defined lines of hierarchy and dominant champions.  I'm absolutely loving the unpredictability and depth of the game at the top.  It really feels like there are about 15 women who could win a GS title - it's incredibly invigorating to watch and speculate on.

Clijsters, Serena, and Venus certainly have the talent to dominate.  But they are all aging, prone to injury and distractions, and playing light schedules.  I suspect that Serena has one more year of dominance - probably next year, before our enjoyment of her will revert to the occasional.  Clijsters will likely rise up and grab another slam or two, but I do not look for any consistent pattern from her.  Venus, unfortunately, has aged enough that she will probably not be able to rise to the top at a slam through the thick layer of talented contenders also vying to get there.

A notch below this group are Li and Schiavone.  Again they are old enough that I do not expect them to win more than another GS title between them, and that to Li - ok, maybe two.  A very talented duo, but on the wrong side of father time...

Sharapova clearly has some gas left in the tank.  It appeared to me in the Wimbledon final that she was in control once the rallies got going.  She seemed to me to be playing better off the ground than Kvitova. However her serve is a liability.  I'm not sure if she will be able to correct it.  I wonder if fear of reinjury prevents her from adopting a more consistent motion.  I also think the grass favoured Kvitova's lunges and stabs more than Sharapova's consistent hard hitting.  Perhaps on a hard court the balance will tip the other way (at least for now).

Kvitova is the big "what if" for me in women's tennis right now.  She's clearly talented.  She's also young enough that her best tennis should be ahead of her.  But we don't know if she will develop the consistency to thrive at the top or become more than a poacher of the odd GS title.  Is she really better than all the other top women (age 26 or less, say)?  Will she be more in the mold of Graf or Kuznetsova, to pick two extremes?  I lean more toward Kuznetsova - well maybe Clijsters-like is a better compromise.

Speaking of consistency at the top, Wozniacki has certainly proven she has staying power at #1.  But the pressure of "when will you win a slam" is clearly getting to her.  She looked spooked at the middle majors this year.  I suspect this year's US Open will be a watershed for her.  If she doesn't do well, at least semis maybe better, she will likely be psychologically scarred and fall from #1 and everyone's "favourites" list for slam titles.  It might actually be the best thing for her to be #2 or 3 for awhile - take the pressure off and let her refocus on playing instead of winning a trophy.  Hopefully she doesn't go the way of Safina.

The question is who would take the #1 ranking away from her?  As I said above, I think Serena has a good chance by mid-next year or so, or possibly Clijsters.  With both of these, playing enough to get points will be an issue.  Li could also manage it with a strong hardcourt and fall season, and Sharapova is putting together the kind of consistent results that could see her rise to the top of the heap.  Kvitova may get there one day, but I doubt it will be much before 2013.

Azarenka is another puzzle.  Is she talented enough to win a GS title or rank #1.  I always thought so, but I'm starting to have my doubts.  Getting through to the SF at Wimbledon was long overdue in a slam.  If she takes as long to break through to the next level, she may be 30 before she actually wins one.  Again, I see her more as a poacher of the odd GS title - and I expect it will be in the next year or two, than I see her becoming a consistent champion.

Zvonareva is still ranked #3.  It seems almost miraculous.  She appears to be trending downward.  If she has any chance at all of avoiding Dementieva's slamless fate, she will need to rally herself and make another push for the top.  She's losing momentum right now and I suspect it will be at least a year, maybe two, before she will be pushing upward again.  Actually I don't expect she will have another chance as good as the ones she had last summer.

Oddly, I think Bartoli may yet pull a rabbit out of the hat.  She goes her own way, and, to a point, that often yields success.  She probably has 3 or 4 good chances left at Wimbledon.

Stosur, Kuznetsova, Jankovic, and Ivanovic can still cause trouble for anyone, but I'd be betting they will not seriously threaten the bastille again.  Still, it's great to have them in the mix, and they MIGHT win, anywhere.

The youth brigade of Petkovic, Goerges, Pavlyuchenkova, Wickmayer, Lisicki, and Cibulkova really are amazing for the sport right now.  They have the talent to cause an upset, taking down anyone, anywhere.  However, I really do not expect any of them to be top tier, perhaps wrongly.  Maybe Lisicki will be a slam champion one day.  I see them threatening but not overcoming at the top.  But they are great for the game.

For the immediate future, I think Sharapova, Serena, and Clijsters are most likely to wrest #1 away from Wozniacki.  In the slightly longer term, Sharapova and Kvitova could rise above the pack as the top two to beat, possibly harried by Azarenka and Wozniacki, or maybe even Lisicki.  All of these should be eligible for GS titles.

A fascinating time indeed...

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