US Open 2009 – Men’s Preview – Thu 27 Aug 2009

US Open 2009 – Men’s Preview – Thu 27 Aug 2009

The Big Six.  Starting in 2007 we had the Big 3.  Last year that expanded to the Big 4 when Murray joined Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic at the top.  Now we have the Big Six.  At least that’s what it looks like to me.  The resurgence of Andy Roddick and the rise (surgence?) of Juan Martin Del Potro cast all six of these players as the top favourites for this year’s US Open.  A win by any one of them would not be too surprising and a win by anyone else would.  Sure a Del Potro or Roddick win would be treated as the Second Coming by some excitable factions, but neither would match the shock value of a title run by Davydenko, Tsonga, Soderling, or Querrey.

First Quarter

Familiarity has returned with the restoration of Federer’s name to the top of the draw.  After a shocking collapse from a 5-1 lead in the 3^rd to Tsonga in Montreal, Federer looked to have let fatherhood, understandably, distract his focus.  But his dismantling of Murray and Djokovic in Cincinnati has restored the franchise.  His sterling record at this event make picking against a 6^th consecutive SF here, and record 22^nd consecutive SF in all GS events, very brave.  (Bill Tilden had 21 consecutive SF or better appearances in GS events he played – of course they weren’t called that then, and Jimmy Connors made  27 straight QF appearances in GS events he played.) 

Lleyton Hewitt could meet Federer in 3R.  It’s a shame in a way since Hewitt has had an excellent summer.  But despite 7 QF or better showings here, his dominance by Federer is not likely to end, no matter how much Hewitt thrives in New York.  Another veteran, James Blake, will not likely have better luck, having looked distinctly off for most of the year.

The most serious challenges will probably come from Davydenko, Querrey, or Soderling.  They are all fearsome opponents and Querrey in particular has been hot this summer.  If this were a lesser tournament I’d be tempted to predict an upset by Querrey, but at the year’s final slam, Federer will be too focused.  But it could be a good fight…

Semi-finalist – Federer def Querrey

Second Quarter

There’s no denying Andy Roddick has been hot this year.  Adding coach Larry Stefanki and subtracting 10 or more pounds have done wonders for Roddick’s confidence and game.  He really seemed to be outplaying Federer for most of the Wimbledon final until the final set when Federer finally began to gain parity and then ultimately the title.  Roddick has got to have all sorts of positive neuron paths in his brain from his first and only major win here in 2003, and, like Hewitt, has 7 QF or better showings here.  He should do well.

An equal favourite in this section is Djokovic.  The 2007 finalist was having a great spring until getting derailed by Nadal from match point up in Madrid.  He’s been rebuilding since and his runner-up showing in Cincinnati should have boosted his confidence, even if the straight set jacketing he received from Federer did not.  Djokovic probably has a better hard court game, but Roddick has owned the Serb this year with three straight victories.

Semi-finalist – Roddick def Djokovic

Third Quarter

Rafael Nadal has had the good luck not only to avoid Federer’s half but also to land in arguably the easiest quarter of the draw.  There are no serious title contenders here.  Gonzalez, Tsonga, and Ferrer are or have been potentially dangerous but are unlikely to make a deep run at this year’s Open.  Ferrer and Gonzalez seem past their primes, and Tsonga, despite world class shots, is likely too inconsistent to make it deep enough to challenge Nadal. 

Tomas Berdych had a good showing in Cincinnati and may repeat that run here.  Getting a few matches under his belt is just what the doctor ordered to get Nadal’s confidence and game back to where it could be.

Semi-finalist – Nadal def Berdych

Fourth Quarter

As the Australian Open dawned this year, observers and bookies vaulted Andy Murray into favourite status with, and at times exceeding, Roger Federer.  His fourth-round loss brought reality crashing in, but his overall performance this year and seizing of the #2 mantle after a record 212-week top-two hegemony by Federer and Nadal have perhaps justified his near favourite status this time around.

Likely to face off against Murray in this quarter is Del Potro.  After exploding into the upper echelon with four consecutive titles last summer, Del Potro has shown he is no fluke, rising steadily as high as number 5 in the rankings and adding two more titles to his name this year.  He nearly took Federer out of the French and then overcame both Nadal and Roddick before a 3-set final loss to Murray in Montreal.

Del Potro will be out to avenge Montreal but Murray should be very hungry to prove he is the real deal this time around.  Will he want it too much?  How much did Del Potro learn in Montreal?  It’s almost too close to call…

Semi-finalist – Murray def Del Potro

First Semi-final

It’s hard to pick against Federer once he gets deep in a major – basically all of the last 6 years.  Roddick and Djokovic are absolutely top-notch players who might have racked up more major titles in another era, unfortunately they share space with the player deemed the greatest of all time who just happens to be showing great form and is brimming with confidence.

Federer def Roddick

Second Semi-final

This is supposed to be Andy Murray’s year, but if he can survive the hiding Del Potro will try to lay on him, will he have anything left?  On the other hand, Nadal, if he makes it this far, will have played himself into form without the legacy of a long grueling summer in his wake.  If he can play into his best form he has a serious shot at the title.  All things being equal, I think Murray may have a better hard court game than Nadal does.  But when it comes to the intangibles, Nadal gets the nod.  Without knowing the kind of form Nadal will be in should he make it this far, this match is too close to call.  I give the minutest edge to…

Murray def Nadal

Final

Federer has a losing record against both Murray and Nadal, but Murray is not in Federer’s head the way Nadal is.  That Nadal has won 6 major titles during the Federer era is almost unbelievable.  If Nadal makes the final he has a really good shot against Federer, even if hard courts are marginally Nadal’s worst surface. 

Murray’s best surface is hard court by his own estimation, and the US Open is the major he deems himself most likely to win.  He’s had great preparation during this summer’s hard court season and should avoid the pitfalls of over-confidence after his loss to Federer in Cincinnati.  Murray is poised for a big win.  Having to beat Del Potro, Nadal, and Federer consecutively however, could prove too much.

Regardless of who faces him on the final Sunday, Federer’s confidence and game look unbeatable.

Federer def Murray

Here are odds from bookies.com for the US Open winner from Thu 27 Aug 2009.  The odds are the average of all bookies reporting.

1          Federer, R       2.22

2          Murray, A       3.72

3          Nadal, R          6.88

4          Del Potro, JM  9.78

5          Djokovic, N    11.56

6          Roddick, A     11.83

7          Tsonga, JW     38.89

8          Verdasco, F     67.33

9          Davydenko, N            72.22

10        Söderling, R    81.33

11        González, F     105.44

12        Haas, T            124.78

13        Hewitt, L        137.56

14        Simon, G         158.11

15        Berdych, T      170.33

16        Cilic, M           172.00

17        Wawrinka, S   173.67

18        Querrey, S       175.89

19        Monfils, G       183.67

20        Ferrer, D          187.56

21        Karlovic, I       197.56

22        Blake, J           234.22

23        Stepanek, R     313.38

24        Safin, M          314.78

25        Kohlschreiber, P          324.80

26        Fish, M            345.33

27        Ferrero, JC      346.57

28        Andreev, I       363.38

29        Mathieu, PH    367.50

30        Youzhny, M    368.71

31        Baghdatis, M  394.50

32        Gulbis, E         407.13