Women’s Tennis – 2011 Review and 2012 Preview
There are more tennis players and more money than ever in the women’s game. But as 2011 ends there is no clear #1. Tennis is still the best paid professional sport for women. Perhaps all that money and all the players it attracts mean that parity at the top and not dominance will be the rule for the foreseeable future. Is the talent so deep that no one woman can dominate?
Historically, there has usually been a dominant champion. Starting with the international era after WW1, the baton passed from Lenglen to Wills to Marble to Betz, then to Connolly, Gibson, Bueno, Court, King, Evert, Navratilova, Graf. Admittedly, there was a fuzzy period after Betz in the late 40’s and early 50’s when Louise Brough, Doris Hart, and Margaret Osborne DuPont battled for supremacy. Things also got complicated after Graf. Martina Hingis spent the better part of 4 years at #1 on the computer (over 200 weeks), but after missing a Grand Slam by one match in 1997, she did not dominate at the slams and had to share spoils with Davenport, Capriati, and Venus and Serena Williams.
With now 13 GS titles to her name, Serena would have seemed the next logical pick in the stream of tennis queens, succeeding Graf (or perhaps, Hingis) but despite the Serena Slam in 2002-03 she has not consolidated the #1 computer ranking for long stretches over the course of her career – largely due to insufficient results that would satisfy the WTA formula for computer #1. Rather it seemed Justine Henin would become the dominant champion with year-ending #1 performances in 2003, 2006, and 2007 (and arguably 2004), while Serena and Venus copped the odd Australian or Wimbledon title, respectively.
However Henin’s retirement in 2008 and unsuccessful comeback all but removed her candidacy for the dominant queen list. Serena has responded with 5 GS titles since Henin’s first good-bye, while Sharapova has failed to improve on the tally of 3 she accrued during the Henin era. But Clijsters’ re-emergence has muddied the waters, and lengthy stints at computer #1 by Jankovic, Safina, and especially Wozniacki have obscured what I believe is the longer historical view. That is, that Serena has been the dominant champion of this era.
While the computer ranking has been wonderful for removing the subjectivity from tennis rankings and has quelled all but the most vociferous of player complaints about seeding, the emphasis it puts on quantity of results (for the good of promoting the tour) has changed how the top women are judged. Many dominant #1’s of the past did not play particularly heavy schedules in any given year, but their clear ability and the results they did post assured the cognoscenti of their claims to the top. I’m reasonably confident that if a panel of knowledgeable tennis insiders – journalists, tournament directors, former players, etc – were choosing yearend #1’s, Serena would have been the choice for 2002, 2008-2010, and probably 2003 as well. Her 13 GS titles speak of a dominance and consistency not rivalled by her contemporaries. It is only, I believe, the (relatively) small number of her results, magnified by the ranking algorithm, that obfuscates this conclusion.
With that said, Serena did not win a GS title in 2011, despite having the best win-loss record (88.0%) for the year. So who is #1? Or more precisely, which player’s record makes the strongest case for best of the year?
My gut feeling is that either Petra Kvitova or Li Na probably had the most desirable year. But to help me answer the question I came up with a ranking system to help tally the results based on a few important indicators – grand slam results, tournaments won, and win-loss record. But before presenting that, let’s look at a subjective summary of the leading ladies, with some thoughts on future prognosis, starting with the computer #1, then the four slam champions.
Caroline Wozniacki
With more than 50 weeks at the #1 ranking including most of 2011 (Clijsters had a week in March) Wozniacki is an obvious candidate for yearend #1. No doubt abetting her ranking are 6 tournament titles. She would be everyone’s pick if one of those had been a slam. She has the most match wins for the year and second best win-loss percentage, bested by Serena who played only 25 matches. At the slams she won 15 matches, topped only by Sharapova with 16. Her stats and consistency are league-leading. But her failure to finish in the biggest moments – at the slams – inescapably flaws her year.
Nevertheless, comparing her stats for career tournaments won and weeks at #1 to past greats argues that she is of similar ilk.
Tournaments won – end of year player turned 21 | |
Graf | 54 |
Hingis | 38 |
V Williams | 21 |
Clijsters | 21 |
S Williams | 19 |
Sharapova | 19 |
Wozniacki | 18 |
Henin | 14 |
Davenport | 13 |
Sanchez Vicario | 8 |
Kuznetsova | 8 |
Kvitova | 7 |
Capriati | 6 |
Weeks at #1 - end of year player turned 21 | |
Hingis | 209 |
Graf | 178 |
Seles | 113 |
Wozniacki | 63 |
SWilliams | 27 |
Austin | 22 |
Sharapova | 17 |
Clijsters | 12 |
Ivanovic | 12 |
Henin | 10 |
Navratilova | 0 |
Sanchez Vicario | 0 |
VWilliams | 0 |
Even though she is only 21, her failure to seize that first slam title by this age makes its eventual likelihood significantly more remote. Among #1’s in the open era, only Navratilova, Davenport, Capriati, Mauresmo, and Clijsters postponed that first satisfaction this long. The clock is ticking loudly for Wozniacki. Focussing on the positive, her 18 titles to date are already 20th best in the open era and her time spent at #1 on the computer has been exceeded by only 8 others. She truly is an exceptional player.
Looking into 2012, I do hope that Caroline can finally grab that first major title. It seems the US is her best bet, thrice making the semis, one of those an eventual runner-up showing. The Aus Open would be another strong candidate for her – she seems to perform best on hard courts. Unfortunately, I do not consider her the favourite at either event. I would think Serena and Clijsters would certainly precede her, and so most likely would Kvitova, Li, Stosur, and Sharapova – all former GS champs.
Wozniacki is very consistent, however, and she has a knack for hanging around late in the draw while the pins are toppling. She showed a lot of determination to consolidate her #1 ranking toward the end of the year. The window on her slam title chances has certainly not closed, but on balance, I do not think it likely she will dive through that window this year. More likely she will make a couple slam semi-finals and win another 5 or 6 tournaments.
Kim Clijsters
Although I stated earlier that Serena was probably #1 for 2010, there are many who would argue that designation should have been reserved for Clijsters. She won more matches and tournaments that year than Serena, but her winning percentage and number of slam titles did not match the American. She started strongly in 2011 with a victory at the Australian Open, her first slam victory outside of the US. Unfortunately, she was felled by injury early in the year and managed to make only one other appearance at a slam (Fre 2R), before being again halted by health. Despite leading the tour in match winning percentage at the slams (8-1, 88.9%), her record does not make a strong enough argument to assault the #1 ranking for 2011.
For 2012, much depends on her health and how much she plays. At one point she had hinted that 2012 might be her swan song, but more recently she has backed away from any firm statements about her future, leaving the door open to extending her career if she continues to feel the desire to play. Although fans have not warmed to Olympic tennis the way they have to grand slam tennis, the quadrennial competition seems to be a strong motivator among players, with no less that Elena Dementieva and Roger Federer having cited it as a significant goal. An Olympic medal for Clijsters would not be a surprise, nor would a title run at any of the slams.
Although all 4 of her slam titles have come on hard courts, I still count her as the first favourite for the French title. I would favour her above former winners Li, Schiavone, Kuznetsova, Ivanovic, and Serena as these all seem past their best clay-playing days (I would entertain contraries about Li). Stosur or Kvitova could also provide a stiff challenge, but if Kim were on, I would pick her. She would also have to be considered no worse than second choice at AO and USO behind Serena, however much will depend on form and health immediately preceding these tournaments. Even at Wimbledon, based on her power and athleticism, I would certainly place Clijsters among the top 5 favourites. Overall I think one more GS title in 2012 is likely for Kim.
Li Na
Last year I surmised that, at 28, 2010 was probably Li’s peak. She proved me decidedly wrong. She bolted from the blocks with a runner up showing at the AO, and then despite never before passing the fourth round, shocked everyone with a victory at the French. She is the only woman to make two slam finals in 2011, and this, along with her two tournament victories (Sydney, Fre) are the main case in considering her for #1. It is without question that the slams are considered the most important aspect of the sport. It sticks in the craw of most fans to name a yearend #1 who has not annexed a slam that year, exhibit A – Wozniacki. But how important is a slam runner up performance? Her French title puts Li in the conversation about YE #1, but does a slam RU in Australia clinch the deal?
The main argument against Li would be the torpid second half to her year. Had she gotten injured and not played the second half the way Clijsters did this year or Serena last year, Li might actually (perversely) be a stronger candidate for top billing. But as it stands, she’s lost a lot of matches since June and had very few wins.
I would expect 2012 will likely not achieve the highs of 2011 for Li. She seems distracted by her fame in China. I think she may rally the troops for another SF showing at one of the slams and maybe a tournament victory or two at smaller events. She turns 30 in 2012 and may be tempted to rest on her well deserved laurels.
Petra Kvitova
Last year I said I did not foresee a major changing of the guard for 2011, however the additions of Kvitova and Petkovic to the world’s top ten challenge that prediction. In fact, the more I think about it, the more inclined I am to consider that Kvitova had the best year on tour. She notched 6 tournament victories, equal to Wozniacki, and counts Madrid, Wimbledon, and the Year End Championships among their number. I would think any of the top women would trade their year for hers. She is also the first person born in the 1990’s to win a GS singles title.
Kvitova gave us a sneak preview last year when she made the SF at Wimbledon, but even she acknowledged at the time that she didn’t feel ready to go further. I’ll bet that statement rankled her for the next year and in winning three progressively larger events in the first half of the year – a 280 pointer, a 470 and a 1000, she proved ready to take on the challenge of going one better at the AELTC. Her performance in the final was almost unbelievable: a blistering barrage of go-for-broke shots that never really allowed Sharapova to set up shop, hunker down, and fight. She then went through the predictable post-slam hangover, but re-emerged in Oct with victories in Linz and the YEC.
Plotting the trajectory of her career, it’s difficult to say if she will become a dominant multi-slam champion or the occasionally brilliant artist. Comparing to past greats, the age of her breakthrough is relatively late (she’s 21 this year), but is the comparison valid? It could be argued that women’s tennis was weak enough in the past to allow the very young prodigy to rise quickly to the top. But the field has been getting deeper and perhaps we have entered an era in which any talent, no matter how precocious, must mature in the crucible of fierce competition before it can surface. The age of this year’s other grand slam champtions (Clijsters-28, Li-29, Stosur-27) would argue the case. On the other hand, Kvitova’s hot and cold style and her slowness of foot – not really slow, but certainly not lightning fast – put her in the GS poacher category along with the likes of Sharapova, Kuznetsova, Davenport, and Pierce. If there is one trait the great champions have most shared it is speed.
On the third hand(...), the current void at the top of women’s tennis is begging for someone to fill it, and Kvitova may well stumble into the role. Once a GS victory or two are under the belt, confidence is wonderfully improved and can snowball into a momentum that keeps players at the top. In the end, I don’t know how Kvitova will turn out. History would argue against her establishing dominance, but she definitely has a window to make it happen.
For 2012 a sophomore slump would not be surprising. Wimbledon is likely her best shot at another slam title, although her victory on clay in Madrid means that a French crown could be in reach. She should definitely notch a few tournament victories and do well at Wimbledon. Her main competition there are likely to be Serena Williams, Clijsters, and Sharapova. I think a match between Kvitova and Serena at Wimbledon would be most tantalizing and may well augur Petra’s future. I also look forward to watching her progress on hard courts and hopefully challenging for slams in Australia and New York one day, maybe in 2013 or later. I would give Kvitova better than 50-50 odds of copping another slam in 2012, with Wimbledon most preferred, followed by Roland Garros.
Samantha Stosur
The last slam champion of 2011 was Samantha Stosur at USO. She seemed to benefit from a decimated draw in her half, playing #92 Kerber in the SF. Although she did take out 2nd ranked Zvonareva in the QF, few gave Vera a real chance at the title. So Stosur’s decisive victory over Serena in the final was unexpected. It was pretty much the reverse of her other GS final appearance, last year in Paris, when she took out favourites like Henin, Serena, and Jankovic to get to the final and then lost to an opponent most thought she would beat.
Her victory and her prime-time age (27) announce her as a major contender for any slam title in 2012. I do not foresee her approaching the #1 ranking however. Her win-loss % for the year was second worst among the top 10 (to Li) and the #1 spot requires some measure of consistency. She has not thriven at the AO, perhaps the pressure of home expectations factor. However, she should be given reasonable odds at the other 3 slams. She has shown most consistency on clay, and given the lack of a clear favourite, the French may represent her best chance of adding to her major title count in 2012. I do expect a slam hangover from her, like Li, and give Stosur slightly worse than 50-50 to rise to the big stage again in 2012, although a slam victory before the end of 2013 would not surprise me.
Serena Williams
The dominant champion of the last decade did not have a banner year in 2011, it being only her third slamless year of the last 10 (2004, 2006). But the fact that she is playing at all, should make fans grateful. After a lengthy recovery from foot surgery, she suffered both a life threatening embolism and blood clots in her lungs. She has also reached the age at which Steffi Graf retired, so every moment we have her is golden.
After a 4R loss at Wimbledon, Serena went on a tear, winning all 18 matches she played before meeting Stosur in the USO final. Had she won that match, she would have to again be considered in the #1 conversation, but that loss has made her year seem rather pedestrian. Nontheless she emerges with the best win-loss % among the top women at 88%, with the caveat that this is based on only 25 matches.
Only the terminally naive would count her out of contention for 2012. A victory at any of the slams is possible, including the French, and the possibility of a Grand Slam cannot be discounted, even if it is highly unlikely. Her best chances are likely at Wimbledon where her grass game seems superior to all comers, and at the Australian where she has won 5 times. Having been thwarted in her last two slam outings, I expect Serena to be in full fierce, and consider her the clear favourite in Melbourne, if she plays. I also favour her slightly in New York over Kim Clijsters, based on talent alone. If she has indeed won AO and Wimbledon, her hunger may be somewhat sated by the time USO rolls around and Clijsters may then edge her out in my prognostications, providing both are healthy and have been playing recently. In short if Serena fails to capture another slam in 2012 it would surprise me.
Maria Sharapova
They are indeed rich times when the 7th women up for consideration is a 3-time slam champion and current world #4. Some bemoan the parity at the top of the women’s game, but another view is to revel in the abundant depth that allows no one to dominate. Steadily over the last 2 years, Sharapova has been working back into form and adapting to the new strokes her injuries have necessitated. Hers is a true comeback and it is testament to her resilience that she has relearned the game so proficieintly. Although she did not win a slam, missing narrowly at Wimbledon, she managed to amass more match wins at the slams than any other woman with 16, ahead of Wozniacki and Schiavone with 15 each.
On her current trajectory she should be a major force in 2012. With a long history behind her already, one forgets how young she is (24), so the prospects for her future must remain very bright. She has not yet stepped into the gap seemingly available for world #1, but her pedigree certainly puts her among the likely contenders.
Looking into 2012 some tournament victories are likely inevitable, but I do not count her the first favourite at any slam even though it would hardly be surprising if she were to triumph at one of them. Wimbledon is the most likely prospect, where she has twice been to the final, and similarly, the Australian Open. However, until she can overcome the large number of double faults that plague her version 2.0 she must be considered behind Serena and Clijsters for most titles. Like Stosur, I would give Maria only slightly worse than 50-50 odds of gaining another slam in 2012, and taking them together (i.e. a win for one of them) might just tip the balance. It would be very surprising to me if Sharapova did not win more major hardware in her career at some point.
Victoria Azarenka
It has been a year of both break-through and consolidation for Azarenka. She has always seemed talented, counting victories over Serena, Clijsters, and Sharapova, but consistency has been an issue. 2012 has changed that somewhat, as she won 3 tournament titles and 14 matches at the slams. Most significantly, she finally broke through the QF barrier into the SF at Wimbledon and to the final of the YEC.
For 2012 I could easily see her in a slam final but I’m not sure if she is ready to claim the ultimate crown. Certainly her performance at the YEC argues that she could rise to the big occasion – she narrowly lost the final in 3 sets to Kvitova. The likelihood of a slam title is unfortunately growing more dim. She will turn 23 in 2012 and this is a rather late start for eventual slam champions. Arguing against that would be the recent successes of Schiavone, Li, and Stosur. I think an eventual slam success is more likely for Azarenka than ever achieving the more difficult task of the #1 ranking.
Different Slam Champions since computer rankings initiated | 35 |
Different #1’s since computer rankings initiated | 20 |
I’d give Azarenka good odds at gaining a slam title before the end of 2013 but less than 50-50 of picking one up during 2012.
Vera Zvonareva
It was another good year for Zvonareva but 2011 represents a small slip backwards from last year’s peak at #2 and two slam finals. Zvonareva added two to her title count this year and reached the QF at USO and the SF in Melbourne. She will be 28 in 2012 and the years for a potential triumph on the major stage are counting down. Like her countrywoman Dementieva, I expect this is a height that will remain frustratingly just out of reach. Despite the density of talent at the top, the very parity of it could mean that Zvonareva can find her way through a favourable draw to the pinnacle of slam success. She just barely has the talent to do it, and a lucky break or two could see her through. In the cold light however, I expect she will not advance beyond the SF of a major in 2012. She should keep trying however, and prove me wrong.
Andrea Petkovic
Andrea Petkovic had a breakout year, rising from #32 last year into the top 10. She made 3 finals in 2011 and won the title in Strasbourg. She also proved a force at the slams, making QF at AO, Fre, and USO. She’s 24 and should be experiencing her peak performance over the next 2 or 3 years. There seems to be a lot of fire inside her and I expect her best performances to be at the slams. She’ll be looking to make a major SF in 2012, and to stay in the top 10 – which she would do well to achieve.
Francesca Schiavone
Most decided Schiavone was a one slam wonder before she had even walked off the court after last year’s Roland Garros triumph. She very nearly proved us all wrong by making the final again this year. Hers is truly the case of a woman continuing to improve and finding joy in the game. She is an inspiration and her fighting spirit, skill on clay, and record at the French mean she must be considered among the favourites for the crown in 2012, despite her age.
She has become a big match player and her 15 match wins at the slams this year tie her with Wozniacki as second only to Sharapova’s 16. She has just fallen out of the top 10 this year, and for next year I’d expect her to remain solidly in the top 20.
OTHER NOTABLES
Agnieszka Radwanska suffered an injury last year that kept her out of contention for most of the early part of the year. She worked herself back into form, however, and when the summer hard court season hit, she had rebounded, eventually scooping 3 titles (3rd best for the year), including the big ones in Tokyo and Beijing. She seems destined to hover around #10 in the rankings and I’d expect little else of her in 2012. If she can marshal the form she showed in Tokyo and Beijing however, she could be a legitimate threat at a slam tournament somewhere down the road. Still I’m hesitant to predict more than QF’s at the majors for her, with the outside possibility of a SF at one of the hardcourt slams in 2012.
Marion Bartoli managed to win 2 titles this year and her upset of Serena at Wimbledon had her suddenly in the running as potential champion at that event. Her 58 match wins for the year are top 3 among the women. She is unpredictable enough to make another slam final someday, but realistically SF appearances in the slams are excellent achievements for her, and even QFs should be celebrated. Wimbledon remains her best shot at big time glory, however a title at a smaller tournament is a more realistic goal for this 27 year old.
Peng Shuai had a breakout year amassing 53 match wins, but somehow failed to garner a title. I expect that to change for 2012 and that she will taste the sweet draught of success, even if further ascendance up the rankings does not materialize.
Sabine Lisicki broke into the public consciousness with a SF showing at Wimbledon. This is not unlike the precursor shown by Kvitova last year and could foretell future success. However, I do not see the vein of talent as deep in Lisicki and I doubt she will ever muster a better slam run. Still, the future is bright for this 22 year old and it is her mind and will to push to the boundaries of her ability that will determine her future. She should stay in the top 20 for 2012.
Jelena Jankovic has slipped a little in 2011. She finally fell out of the top 10 after a 4 year residence and has not managed a title all year. I expect her to remain in the top 15-20 next year. She is a dangerous player and could make a slam SF if the cards fall right.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been improving steadily, raising her ranking each of the last 5 years. She’s still only 20 years old and finding her way into the top 10 should happen in 2012 or 2013. She has the sort of big game that could generate a good run at the slams and so a SF showing from her would be a great accomplishment and not a surprise.
Svetlana Kuznetsova has moved back into the top 20 after finishing last year at #27. She’s only 26 and has had 4 previous top 5 yearend finishes, but the last two years have made it look doubtful if she will ever regain her form. She has a few good years left to find her way back, although honestly, I won’t be expecting more from her in 2012 than the single slam QF she posted this year in Paris.
Dominika Cibulkova – after lurking around #30 for the last 2 years, she found her way back to around #20 where she was after 2008. She has a big game, but one wonders if her size 5’3” stands in the way of greater accomplishments. She’s capable of some big wins and at only age 22 may not yet have hit her peak game. She’s been in 3 major QFs thus far, including a SF, and there’s no reason we shouldn’t expect more of the same in the future. She won her first tournament title in 2011. She may even make a slam final some day and threaten the top 10. For 2012, reaching #10-12 would be a great accomplishment.
Julia Goerges emerged as a contender with 4 top 10 wins on clay in April including twice over Wozniacki. She also earns the consistency award for posting exactly 3R finishes at all the slams in 2011. She’s 23 this year so should have time to improve on that performance, but I doubt she will get more than 1 or 2 slam QFs in her career. For 2012 I look for her to strive for a top 15 ranking.
Roberta Vinci had a banner year, winning three 280 point tournaments. She also notched three 3R showings at the slams – her best ever. The 28 year old should be commended for what is probably the peak year of her career.
Ana Ivanovic showed signs of reviving when she won two titles at the end of last year, but she finishes the year in the twenties where she has hovered for 3 years. There were hints of hope from her at the slams finishing 3R at Wimbledon, 4R at USO, and then a QF at Beijing. Maybe next year will see her climb closer to her 2008 success. She’s just turned 24 and should still have some good years left – but the clock is ticking and getting back to the top is looking more and more unlikely.
Venus Williams is 31, has been injured, diagnosed with Sjogren’s syndrome, and barely played this year. In fact, 6 of the last 7 tournaments she played have been grand slam events – dating back to the French of 2010. It seems pretty clear we won’t enjoy her tennis for much longer. She still has the potential to do damage in any tournament she enters and another Wimbledon title is not unthinkable. But I’m not expecting it. Hopefully she can find the health and will to soar again.
UP AND COMERS
Monica Niculescu (rank 29) has won more than 30 matches on the main tour this year and made the fourth round of the USO. She is 24 and still has time in her career to strive for the top 20.
Angelique Kerber (rank 33) has been steadily on the rise and burst into public consciousness with a SF at the USO. She made top 50 last year and is top 30 now. She is about to turn 24 in Jan and realistically I think she may reach 15-20 in her career.
Ksenia Pervak (rank 39) is just 20 and rose from #97 at the end of last year to top 40 this year. She also made 4R at Wimbledon and won her first tour level event in Tashkent. She may reach #20 in 2012 and top 15 in her career.
Simona Halep (rank 52) rose 31 places this year, she’s 20 years old, and made the final in Fes. She’s only 5’6” and that may make it more difficult for her to climb much higher than 20 in her career.
Rebecca Marino (rank 60) has room for growth (turns 21 on Dec 16) and may still be breaking into her best form. She rose more than 40 places from last year’s finish at 101. The six footer will probably come close to finding her full game in 2012 and could threaten the top 30.
Mona Barthel (rank 67) age 21, was ranked 208 at the end of 2010, and won 6 rounds out of the qualies in Copenhagen before falling to Wozniacki. At 6’1” she has the size to do some serious damage. She should make top 40 or better before 2012 ends.
Vania King (rank 75) is 22 and has been hovering in the 50-100 range for a little more than 5 years now. She made 3R at both Roland Garros and the USO and hopefully this will spur her on to greater heights. A top 50 finish in 2012 should be within reach.
Irina Falconi (rank 79) is another 21 year old rising from the 200’s last year (217). She made 3R at USO taking out #14 seed Cibulkova along the way. She made SF at Washington. Her size, 5’3”, puts her in the realm of talents like Cibulkova and reaching top 30 in 2012 would be a great achievement.
Alexandra Cadantu (rank 97) has risen from an astonishing 378 last year, playing mostly on the ITF circuit. 2012 should provide a litmus test of her potential as she gains entry to more main draw events. She acquitted herself well in Luxembourg, winning 3 rounds of qualifying before falling in the second round of the main draw. Making top 50 in 2012 would be a great achievement.
UNDER TWENTIES
Christina McHale (rank 42), still only 19, has improved significantly on last year’s finish at 115. She was among the coterie of young Americans making 3R at this year’s USO, and may have the brightest future of them all. At 5’7” she will not be significantly hindered by her size and she has the talent to go far in her career. Top 20 is definitely possible for 2012 and top 10 beyond that should be possible during her career.
Bojana Jovanovski (rank 68) will turn 20 on 31 Dec and has essentially tread water from last year’s #71 finish. Call this a sophomore adjustment. I can foresee 50 or so for her next year and perhaps top 40 during her career.
Heather Watson (rank 89) has somehow slipped through all the hoopla about fellow Brit, Laura Robson, and past her in the rankings. The 19 year old was 176 after 2010 but notched up a level in 2011 with QF showings in Auckland, Memphis, and Quebec City. Top 30 would not be out of reach in 2012.
Sloane Stephens (rank 92) is just 18 and beat 3 top 40 players in making the QF at Carlsbad and 3R at the US Open. She may need more time to mature, but could certainly rise above 40 in 2012 and top 15 or so in the foreseeable future.
Laura Robson (rank about 135) is still only 17 and improved about 70 places on last year’s rank. At 5’11” she may not have grown into her game yet and there is still big potential for her future. She looked impressive in taking eventual finalist Sharapova to a first set tiebreaker in 2R at Wimbledon. She has improved steadily over the last few years and I expect 2012 will be no different. Top 50 should be within reach, and looking beyond she could gain very great heights in the future.
Caroline Garcia (rank about 140), age 18, height 5’10”, last year #280, took a set from Sharapova in 2R at Roland Garros. She should break through the top 100 in 2012 and may have the talent to go much farther, although she does not look likely to mature especially quickly.
Ajla Tomljanovic (rank about 150), age 18, did not make much improvement on last year’s rank (157) but is at an age which makes me expect she will likely make top 100 next year. She won 2 ITF titles in 2011 and has size (5’11”) on her side. The longer term future is promising given her ability to win titles and her youth.
Timea Babos (rank about 160), age 18, gained about 150 spots in 2011 and won 3 ITF tournaments. For 2012 she should threaten the top 100 or better.
Lara Arruabarreno-Vecino (rank about 170) had a breakthrough year, rising from #396 last year. She’ll turn 20 in March and is playing mainly on the ITF circuit. She may approach 100 by the end of 2012. Future potential unknown.
Chichi Scholl (rank about 170) rose nearly 600 ranking spots in 2011 and won 2 ITF tournaments in the US. For 2012 this 19 year old will be looking to consolidate at this level and perhaps move into the top 100. Future unknown but could be promising.
Kristina Mladenovic (rank about 180), age 18, rose about 170 places in 2011, winning 3 ITF tournaments, including 12 straight matches in Feb-Mar. She’s another threat for the top 100 in 2012.
Julia Putintseva (rank about 230), age 16, gained nearly 500 spots in 2011. She’s the highest ranked player born 1995 or later and is young enough that virtually everything is unknown and anything is possible. She could make top 150 next year and if she makes top 100, watch out!
Madison Keys (rank just above 300), age 16, is about a month younger than Putintseva, and is already 5’10”. Her 1R win at USO is extremely promising for someone her age. Expect to hear lots more about her in 2012 and beyond.
Taylor Townsend (rank about 420), age 15, exploded during her first tournament of the year with 6 straight wins out of qualifying in the ITF event in Carson, to reach the SF. She’s ridiculously young so I won’t attempt a prediction but her name, along with the other young guns I’ve just mentioned, is now on my radar.
Year end #1 ranking scheme
Before Kvitova’s convincing victory in the YEC, it seemed really unclear to me who #1 for the year might be, so I tried to derive a somewhat objective ranking scheme to help me think about the year. The first step was to accumulate some raw data on the performance of the top 25 for the year (and Venus Williams). In the following, W stands for match wins in 2012, L = losses, % is win-loss %, T-W = tournament wins, T-RU = tournament runner-ups, GS = grand slam tournament wins, GS-W = grand slam match wins, GS-L = grand slam match losses, GS% = grand slam match winning percentage. Red print = the best results for the year.
W | L | % | T-W | T-RU | GS | GS-W | GS-L | GS% | |
Kvitova | 58 | 13 | 81.7% | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 82.4% |
Wozniacki | 63 | 17 | 78.8% | 6 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 78.9% |
Li | 32 | 17 | 65.3% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 82.4% |
Clijsters | 23 | 7 | 76.7% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 88.9% |
Stosur | 45 | 23 | 66.2% | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 78.6% |
Azarenka | 55 | 17 | 76.4% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 77.8% |
Sharapova | 43 | 14 | 75.4% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 80.0% |
Petkovic | 54 | 17 | 76.1% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 77.8% |
SWilliams | 22 | 3 | 88.0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 81.8% |
Zvonareva | 56 | 22 | 71.8% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 77.8% |
Schiavone | 34 | 22 | 60.7% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 78.9% |
Bartoli | 58 | 24 | 70.7% | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 73.3% |
Lisicki | 47 | 17 | 73.4% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 72.7% |
ARadwanska | 46 | 18 | 71.9% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 69.2% |
Peng | 53 | 20 | 72.6% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 73.3% |
Vinci | 37 | 25 | 59.7% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 60.0% |
Pavlyuchenkova | 40 | 21 | 65.6% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 73.3% |
Kuznetsova | 33 | 20 | 62.3% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 75.0% |
Goerges | 38 | 25 | 60.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 66.7% |
Hantuchova | 41 | 28 | 59.4% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 55.6% |
Petrova | 23 | 19 | 54.8% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 63.6% |
VWilliams | 8 | 3 | 72.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 75.0% |
Jankovic | 38 | 22 | 63.3% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 60.0% |
Pennetta | 33 | 21 | 61.1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 69.2% |
Ivanovic | 29 | 20 | 59.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 55.6% |
Kirilenko | 29 | 21 | 58.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 69.2% |
Cibulkova | 42 | 21 | 66.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 63.6% |
Safarova | 35 | 24 | 59.3% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 60.0% |
Wickmayer | 31 | 19 | 62.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 63.6% |
With data gathered, I ranked the players in the categories I thought most significant. The #1 player in a category got 10 points, #2 got 9, etc down to #10 who got 1 point. Players ranked lower than 10 in a category got 0’s. The exception was the grand slam winners. I gave them 20 points for each GS title they garnered to reflect the importance people in the sport attach to the grand slams. Then I totalled the results and ranked the players accordingly. In the case of a tie in the final rank, I gave the higher place according to WTA computer ranking.
rank W | rank % | rank TW | rank GS | rank GSW | rank GS% | Total | Rank | |
Kvitova | 9 | 9 | 10 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
Wozniacki | 10 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 42 | 2 | |
Li | 3 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 3 | ||
Clijsters | 7 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 39 | 3 | ||
Stosur | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 5 | |
Azarenka | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 26 | 6 | |
Sharapova | 4 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 23 | 7 | ||
Petkovic | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 8 | |
SWilliams | 10 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 9 | |||
Zvonareva | 7 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 10 | ||
Schiavone | 9 | 5 | 14 | 11 | ||||
Bartoli | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 12 | |||
Lisicki | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | |||
ARadwanska | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | ||||
Peng | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 15 | |||
Vinci | 5 | 5 | 16 | |||||
Pavlyuchenkova | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | ||||
Kuznetsova | 2 | 2 | 18 | |||||
Goerges | 2 | 2 | 18 | |||||
Hantuchova | 2 | 2 | 18 | |||||
Petrova | 2 | 2 | 18 | |||||
VWilliams | 2 | 2 | 18 | |||||
Jankovic | 0 | 23 | ||||||
Pennetta | 0 | 23 | ||||||
Ivanovic | 0 | 23 | ||||||
Kirilenko | 0 | 23 | ||||||
Cibulkova | 0 | 23 | ||||||
Safarova | 0 | 23 | ||||||
Wickmayer | 0 | 23 |
It became clear to me from this exercise that Kvitova was #1 for the year, well ahead of #2 Wozniacki and #3 Li. [For interest’s sake I used the same scheme to rank last year’s top players and came up with 1 Serena, 2 Clijsters, 3 Schiavone, 4 Wozniacki, 5 Zvonareva, 6 VWilliams, 7 Stosur, 8 Henin, 9 Dementieva, 10 Jankovic for 2010.]
I basically liked the ranking scheme for determining the top player but I was less convinced about the rest of the top 10 so rearranged according to my own thoughts. Thus, at year end the ranking lists are (last year’s rank in brackets):
Charles’ 2011 rank | WTA 2011 rank | Charles’ 2012 projection |
1. Kvitova () | 1. Wozniacki (1) | 1. SWilliams (1) |
2. Wozniacki (3) | 2. Kvitova (34) | 2. Kvitova () |
3. Li () | 3. Azarenka (10) | 3. Azarenka (9) |
4. Clijsters (2) | 4. Sharapova (18) | 4. Clijsters (2) |
5. Azarenka () | 5. Li (11) | 5. Sharapova (8) |
6. Stosur (7) | 6. Stosur (6) | 6. Wozniacki (3) |
7. Sharapova () | 7. Zvonareva (2) | 7. Stosur (7) |
8. SWilliams (1) | 8. ARadwanska (14) | 8. Li () |
9. Zvonareva (4) | 9. Bartoli (16) | 9. Zvonareva (5) |
10. Petkovic () | 10. Petkovic (32) | 10. Bartoli () |
I found it striking that only 4 of last year’s WTA top 10 are still in this year’s top 10 computer ranking.
Grand Slam projections for 2012 (top 6)
AO – SWilliams, Sharapova, Clijsters, Wozniacki, Kvitova, Azarenka
RG – Clijsters, Kvitova, Stosur, SWilliams, Li, Schiavone
Wim – SWilliams, Kvitova, Sharapova, Clijsters, Azarenka, VWilliams
USO – SWilliams, Clijsters, Sharapova, Stosur, Azarenka, Wozniacki
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