Wimbledon Women 2011 – 19 June 2011

Wimbledon Women 2011 – 19 June 2011

In this window of parity in women’s tennis who will fight to the top and claim tennis’ most famous prize?  Are the newly returned Williams sisters fresh enough to claim a 10^th title for the family in the last 12 years?  Both won matches at Eastbourne, can they get through their first matches and gain enough match toughness to beat the other top women?  What about Sharapova, the only other former champion in the field?

Top quarter

The highest seeds in this portion are Caroline Wozniacki (1) and Maria Sharapova (5).  Only Sharapova will be given a serious chance of claiming the crown by most observers.  Another dangerous player in Sharapova’s half is 10^th seeded Samantha Stosur, who has been runner up twice here in doubles but has never been past the 3^rd round in singles in 8 attempts.

Wozniacki has been to the 4^th round here the last two years.  Although she has won 5 tournaments this year, her 3^rd round loss at the French has made her look unready to claim a major – possibly ever.  Still she is talented and consistent enough to pose a serious threat to any competitor.  Jarmila Gajdosova (27) made the 4^th round last year and has the talent to take out Wozniacki in round three.  In the 4^th round Wozniacki could face Dominika Cibulkova (24), former semifinalist Mirjana Lucic, or one of this year’s breakouts, 22 year old Julia Goerges (16).

In the bottom portion, Sharapova is the clear favourite.  She is always vulnerable however if she has a poor serving day, something that has plagued her since her post shoulder surgery comeback in 2009.  Shuai Peng (20), Safarova (31), and Stosur are most likely to take advantage of a bad serving day by Sharapova.

Sharapova def Gajdosova

Second quarter

There are at least three potential champions in the second quarter, and a fourth player, Agnieszka Radwanska (13), who has been to the quarters here twice.  Radwanska’s game and quick reflexes seem aided by the fast conditions at Wimbledon, but she likely does not have the firepower to emerge from this loaded quarter.

The top seed here is third seeded Li Na, the just crowned French champion.  Li has been to the quarters twice here in just four attempts.  Her game is hard-hitting enough to hurt anyone on the grass.  A potential third round opponent for her is unseeded compatriot Zheng Jie who made the semis in 2009.  The major question with Li is whether or not she will be able to display the concentration required to go deep here after the distraction and euphoria of her French Open title.  She has shown big letdowns in the past after fine performances.  The difference this time is that she won.  Instead of deflation, she may now have the confidence to go deep on a surface that would seem to favour her flat, speedy game.

In the bottom portion lies the question the entire tennis world is desperate to answer:  Serena.  With 13 majors to her name, including four Wimbledons, and her status has two-time defending champion, there is no doubt Serena Williams has the goods to go all the way.  But does she have them right now?  She’s played only two matches since last year’s Wimbledon – earlier this week in Eastbourne – losing a tight 3-setter to last year’s Wimbledon runner up, Vera Zvonareva.  She HAS to be rusty.  The seeding committee has awarded her a seeding of 7, despite her WTA ranking of 25.  But with Serena, she can never be counted out, as her win in Australia in 2007 from a ranking of 81 proved.  And what of her foot injury.  Is she fully recovered or will it hinder her?

She may be severely tested early on.  Aravane Rezai in the first round has the talent to hurt anyone on a good day.  A potential 3^rd rounder is Tamarine Tanasugarn, seven times a 4^th rounder here, once a quarterfinalist.  In the fourth round lies potentially the formidable 9^th seed, Marion Bartoli. 

Bartoli was a finalist at Wimbledon in 2007 and is fresh from a semifinal performance at the French.  Even more ominously she has just claimed the title in Eastbourne, the perennial warmup for Wimbledon.  If Serena were match-tested, I would give her odds over Bartoli any day, however, considering her lack of play, it’s much more of a toss up.

Looking at the three main contenders here, Li could be excused a loss after her recent grand slam title, Serena lacks match-toughness, but Bartoli is both in good form and should be hungry.

Bartoli def Li

Third quarter

It would seem very unlikely that the champion will emerge from what is possibly the weakest quarter of the draw.  Azarenka is the highest seed at four, but she has never been past the quarterfinals at a major.  Next is Schiavone (6) who made the quarters at Wimbledon in 2009, but whose game is best suited for clay.  She could face Jelena Dokic in the first round who made the semis in 2000.  Kaia Kanepi is the 17^th seed and made the quarters last year.  Hantuchova is the 25^th seed and made the quarters in 2005.

Some of the best chances may lie with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (14) and Andrea Petkovic (11).  Pavlyuchenkova broke through to the quarters at the French and is still just 19.  Petkovic has blossomed this year with quarters at both the Australian and French championships.

In short, a semi-final performance by anyone in this quarter would be a surprise and a significant achievement, but someone has to do it.

Petkovic def Pavlyuchenkova

Fourth quarter

The most surprising thing about this quarter is not that Venus Williams is present here but that the seeding committee awarded her a seeding of only 23.  Not only has she played 8 finals at Wimbledon, she has claimed 5 titles, the most successful Wimbledon player of this era.  Certainly, the bookies have more confidence in her and have placed her third in their estimations.  The big question is how her lack of match play will affect her game.

The highest seeds in the quarter are last year’s semifinalist Petra Kvitova (8) and last year’s runner up Vera Zvonareva (3).  Both have the chops to win the title.  Other notables include Jelena Jankovic (15) and Svetlana Kuznetsova (12).  Although very successful elsewhere, neither have thriven at Wimbledon finishing no better than the 4^th round and quarters, respectively.

It should come down to a three way battle among Venus, Kvitova, and Zvonareva.  The oddsmakers have them very close with a slight edge to Venus.  Venus and Zvonareva are slated to meet in the round of 16, and Kvitova would come up in the quarters.  The most likely upsetters of Kvitova are the seeds in her quarter, Roberta Vinci (29), who just claimed the grass title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Wickmayer (19), and Kuznetsova (12).  Both Ravi Ubha and Brad Gilbert of ESPN have picked Kvitova for the title.  I expect both Kvitova and Zvonareva may feel the pressure of points to defend, and Venus is likely to be rusty.  Zvonareva’s victory over Serena in Eastbourne will not be insignificant for her confidence.

Zvonareva d Kvitova

Semis

Oddsmakers have made Sharapova and Serena the top two favourites and expert journalist opinion (see below) has sided with one of these two 16 of 23 times.  I half expect Serena to rise gloriously to another title, but just a whisker more expects she will be pay the price for her rustiness.

Sharapova has shown steady improvement this year and her semifinal finish in Paris had to boost her confidence.  But Bartoli also made the semis and I expect her odd game will be difficult to overcome on grass.  Sharapova has not made it past the 4^th round here in her last 4 attempts.  Bartoli has had some fine results in the last year but has always fallen just short.  She is in good form right now and I expect at age 26 she will feel the clock ticking and will be highly motivated.

Bartoli def Sharapova

The chance of neither Williams sister making the final has to be very remote considering past performance:  I’m sure I will regret picking against both of them.  Picking against the talented youth brigade of Wozniacki, Azarenka, Goerges, Petkovic and Kvitova may be just as foolish.

Zvonareva def Petkovic

Final

Both are seasoned veterans and a victory for either would be a career-defining moment.  Both will be hungry.  There are likely to be a lot of nerves involved and both have shown a propensity for meltdowns.  In a very entertaining final I pick

Bartoli def Zvonareva

Expert Opinion Summary

9 picks – Sharapova – Garber, Tandon, Fernandez, Shriver, Cahill, Drysdale (ESPN); Price (SI); Tignor, Bodo (Tennis)
7 picks – SWilliams – Wertheim, Jenkins, Lawrence, Newman (SI); Pagliaro, McGrogan (Tennis); Bowers (Tennisserver)
3 picks – Li – McEnroe (ESPN); Hunt, Dietsch (SI)
2 picks – Kvitova – Ubha, Gilbert (ESPN)
1 pick – VWilliams – Graham (SI)
1 pick – Wozniacki – Wilansky (ESPN)

Average from bookies.com on 19 Jun 2011

1.  SWilliams  5.13
2.  Sharapova  5.26
3.  VWilliams  8.48
4.  Li  9.25
5.  Kvitova  9.74
6.  Wozniacki  10.88
7.  Azarenka  14.75
8.  Zvonareva  17.33
9.  Bartoli 25.12
10.  Stosur  27.61
11.  Hantuchova  32.18
12.  Petkovic  38.41
13.  Lisicki  40.06
14.  Pavlyuchenkova  42.50
15.  ARadwanska  47.06
16.  Jankovic  53.11
17.  Kuznetsova  59.39
18.  Goerges  76.59
19.  Wickmayer  77.28
20.  Ivanovic  79.33
21.  Schiavone  82.44
22.  Makarova  112.25
23.  Cibulkova  120.75
24.  Dokic  126.00