Men’s Rankings Preview – Feb, Mar 2010 – (7 Feb 2010)
Davydenko as world #2 – is a possibility by the end of March. It may seem startling, and fans can debate the likelihood, but numbers 2 to 6 are very tightly grouped at the beginning of February. That group includes (in order) Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Nikolay Davydenko. When last year’s points through Miami are subtracted from the current totals, the difference in these player’s rankings is small and could lead to dramatic swings within the top 10 depending on their performances in the next 8 weeks.
A key factor in this is Davydenko’s strong play at the end of 2009 coupled with having zero points to defend through Miami at the end of March. The threesome of Murray, Del Potro, and Davydenko are within about 200 points of each other when last year’s results are subtracted. This means that whoever performs best through Miami will hold at least the number 4 position at the beginning of April. Nadal is about 500 points ahead of the trio and Djokovic is 800 points beyond that. Most of these players are scheduled to play in two 500 events and the two 1000 events (Indian Wells and Miami), so with 3000 points on offer, any position from 2 to 6 is available to the player who can put together the best run in the next few weeks.
Here’s the ranking table as it stands for the next few weeks. Points displayed reflect last year’s tournaments coming off.
Effective points at start of tournament | |||||||
Dates | tournament | Federer | Djokovic | Murray | Nadal | Del Potro | Davydenko |
Feb 8-14 | Rotterdam/SanJose | 11350 | 8310 | 7300 | 7370 | 6355 | 5540 |
Feb 15-21 | Memphis/Marseilles | 11350 | 8310 | 7300 | 7370 | 6265 | 5540 |
Feb 22-28 | Dubai | 11350 | 7810 | 7210 | 7370 | 6265 | 5540 |
Mar 1-7 | Davis Cup | 11350 | 7810 | 7210 | 7370 | 6265 | 5540 |
Mar 8-21 | Indian Wells | 10990 | 7630 | 6610 | 6370 | 6085 | 5540 |
Mar 22-Apr 4 | Miami | 10630 | 7030 | 5610 | 6190 | 5725 | 5540 |
Nadal
The possibility that Nadal will not play at all means that he could end up in 6th spot. Nadal has said that the ranking is not important but regaining his health and playing well is. And it is hard to argue with his logic. Having fallen outside of the world top 3 for the first time since 2005, how far he falls is less important than his ability to regain the form that has taken him to 6 Slam titles and the #1 world ranking.
The possibility that Nadal will not play at all means that he could end up in 6th spot. Nadal has said that the ranking is not important but regaining his health and playing well is. And it is hard to argue with his logic. Having fallen outside of the world top 3 for the first time since 2005, how far he falls is less important than his ability to regain the form that has taken him to 6 Slam titles and the #1 world ranking.
At the same time it is a golden opportunity for the rest of the top pack to scramble for ranking position. Davydenko has been as high as #3 and Del Potro has previously reached #4 while Murray has been #2, the position currently occupied by Djokovic. What is likely to happen in the next several weeks?
Federer
Federer is in nearly an invincible position rankings-wise. Even if Federer doesn’t play at all through Miami and the next highest ranked player, Djokovic, wins every tournament he’s entered, Federer cannot be ousted from number 1.
Federer is in nearly an invincible position rankings-wise. Even if Federer doesn’t play at all through Miami and the next highest ranked player, Djokovic, wins every tournament he’s entered, Federer cannot be ousted from number 1.
Murray
With a sparkling performance that took him to the final in Melbourne, Murray is the form favourite to move up. He showed ability during this segment of the calendar last year with a 500 win, a 1000 win, and a 600 point runner up showing, but Murray will need to earn 600 more points than Nadal just to hold onto the #3 spot he currently occupies. If he can bring the form he showed in Melbourne and with the possibility that Nadal will not play, the odds are good Murray will not fall in the rankings. But how deflating was his final round loss to Federer down under? Unlike his 2008 US Open runner-up finish, Murray will no longer be satisfied without a W beside his name. It appeared he was seriously outclassed by Federer in Australia in a convincing straight sets win that showed the Mighty One playing some of his best tennis ever. However the final set tie-breaker went to 13-11 and one could easily envision that had Murray converted any of his 5 set points, he had raised his game sufficiently to possibly cop a break in the 4th and push the championship match into a 5th set. Federer acknowledged as much, saying that while he was playing that last long game he feared he would lose the tiebreak and eventually the match. Murray should take consolation from that. But will he? Last year Djokovic’s loss to Nadal in Madrid showed the devastating long term effect one hard loss could have on a player’s confidence. It took Djokovic most of half a year to re-find his A game. I don’t think Murray will have suffered as much despite the trophy ceremony tears, and I would not be surprised to see him take one of Indian Wells or Miami. But will he gain 1400 more points than Djokovic and retake #2?
With a sparkling performance that took him to the final in Melbourne, Murray is the form favourite to move up. He showed ability during this segment of the calendar last year with a 500 win, a 1000 win, and a 600 point runner up showing, but Murray will need to earn 600 more points than Nadal just to hold onto the #3 spot he currently occupies. If he can bring the form he showed in Melbourne and with the possibility that Nadal will not play, the odds are good Murray will not fall in the rankings. But how deflating was his final round loss to Federer down under? Unlike his 2008 US Open runner-up finish, Murray will no longer be satisfied without a W beside his name. It appeared he was seriously outclassed by Federer in Australia in a convincing straight sets win that showed the Mighty One playing some of his best tennis ever. However the final set tie-breaker went to 13-11 and one could easily envision that had Murray converted any of his 5 set points, he had raised his game sufficiently to possibly cop a break in the 4th and push the championship match into a 5th set. Federer acknowledged as much, saying that while he was playing that last long game he feared he would lose the tiebreak and eventually the match. Murray should take consolation from that. But will he? Last year Djokovic’s loss to Nadal in Madrid showed the devastating long term effect one hard loss could have on a player’s confidence. It took Djokovic most of half a year to re-find his A game. I don’t think Murray will have suffered as much despite the trophy ceremony tears, and I would not be surprised to see him take one of Indian Wells or Miami. But will he gain 1400 more points than Djokovic and retake #2?
Djokovic
Last year during this stretch Novak won Dubai (500) and finished runner-up to Murray at Miami. He ended 2009 strong, earning more points from August onward than any other player. But after this year’s muddled loss in the Australian quarters to Tsonga, consumer confidence in his share price is dropping. However, tennis is up to the individual and Novak has shown time and again that he will rally just when he has been counted out and will again display the sublime full-stretch shot-making game that has exhilarated us in the past. I am not expecting him to do particularly well in the late-winter stretch, but he has enough of a points lead that he may hang onto #2 regardless. However his ranking is certainly vulnerable and a quick drop to #4 or 5 after the long-awaited ascension to #2 would not, unfortunately, be a surprise.
Last year during this stretch Novak won Dubai (500) and finished runner-up to Murray at Miami. He ended 2009 strong, earning more points from August onward than any other player. But after this year’s muddled loss in the Australian quarters to Tsonga, consumer confidence in his share price is dropping. However, tennis is up to the individual and Novak has shown time and again that he will rally just when he has been counted out and will again display the sublime full-stretch shot-making game that has exhilarated us in the past. I am not expecting him to do particularly well in the late-winter stretch, but he has enough of a points lead that he may hang onto #2 regardless. However his ranking is certainly vulnerable and a quick drop to #4 or 5 after the long-awaited ascension to #2 would not, unfortunately, be a surprise.
Del Potro
With only one event under his belt this year that ended in a 5-set loss to Marin Cilic, the jury is out on both the form and what to expect from Delpo. We have seen flashes of the brilliance and fearless boldness that captured the US title in his runner-up loss at the World Tour Finals and two 5-setters in Australia. However the endings have not been happy for the tall Argentine. The weight of increased expectations may be burdening him. It appears he has the drive and intelligence to find his way out of the maze and back to the winner’s circle but it is less clear when that might occur. The return to American hardcourts may brace him, but I suspect we may have to wait for summer to see his solution to this new problem of being a favourite.
With only one event under his belt this year that ended in a 5-set loss to Marin Cilic, the jury is out on both the form and what to expect from Delpo. We have seen flashes of the brilliance and fearless boldness that captured the US title in his runner-up loss at the World Tour Finals and two 5-setters in Australia. However the endings have not been happy for the tall Argentine. The weight of increased expectations may be burdening him. It appears he has the drive and intelligence to find his way out of the maze and back to the winner’s circle but it is less clear when that might occur. The return to American hardcourts may brace him, but I suspect we may have to wait for summer to see his solution to this new problem of being a favourite.
Davydenko
So magnificent was his form in January, that four editors at tennis.com actually picked Davydenko to take home the big prize in Australia. For a set and a half in the quarter finals he appeared to be well on the way to dethroning the eventual champ. But suddenly, inexplicably, the pressure got to him. He lost 13 consecutive games and, despite rallying, had given Federer the confidence to close out a match that Davydenko could easily, perhaps should easily, have won. He himself has said he feels more comfortable in the regular tour 3-set match format, so perhaps he will regain the scintillating confidence that took him to 5 post-Wimbledon titles last year and will by April claim the titles and #2 ranking that seem within reach of his talent. We may be able to guess the effect on him of the loss to Federer by the form he displays between now and the end of March. Hopefully he will take solace in the beating he was handing the Great One and see the mid-match hiccup has a solvable problem for future reference.
So magnificent was his form in January, that four editors at tennis.com actually picked Davydenko to take home the big prize in Australia. For a set and a half in the quarter finals he appeared to be well on the way to dethroning the eventual champ. But suddenly, inexplicably, the pressure got to him. He lost 13 consecutive games and, despite rallying, had given Federer the confidence to close out a match that Davydenko could easily, perhaps should easily, have won. He himself has said he feels more comfortable in the regular tour 3-set match format, so perhaps he will regain the scintillating confidence that took him to 5 post-Wimbledon titles last year and will by April claim the titles and #2 ranking that seem within reach of his talent. We may be able to guess the effect on him of the loss to Federer by the form he displays between now and the end of March. Hopefully he will take solace in the beating he was handing the Great One and see the mid-match hiccup has a solvable problem for future reference.
Really, it’s anyone’s guess what the top rankings will look like after Miami on Monday, April 5th. Here’s my guess:
1 Federer
2 Murray
3 Davydenko
4 Djokovic
5 Del Potro
6 Nadal
Another chance to display my limited pre-vision!
Let’s not forget Marin Cilic, currently #10 who could rise to 7 with a strong end of winter showing.
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