French Open – Men’s Preview – 21 May 2010

French Open – Men’s Preview – 21 May 2010

At the end of last year I had expected that this year’s French Open would be one of the most open and unpredictable in years – the way it was before the Nadal era when unforeseen champions like Albert Costa and Gaston Gaudio hoisted the hardware.  Such has been the deterioration in Gaudio’s game since his victory six years ago that he has already flamed out in qualifying and Costa is long retired.

But the levelling of the field has not happened.  Davydenko and Del Potro – who theoretically have the games to beat anyone on clay – are both injured.  Djokovic has looked decidedly off on clay this year.  Monfils, always dangerous at the French, has missed most of the year due to injury.  And last year’s clay surprise, Soderling, did make the final in Barcelona, but has otherwise looked vulnerable.

Federer had been having a horrific clay outing this spring till making the final in Madrid and proving that he’s still potent on the dirt.  Meanwhile, Nadal had looked very vulnerable at the beginning of the year, and entered the clay season without a tournament victory in nearly a year.  But after 3 straight victories in 1000 tournaments his return to invincibility is complete.

Can anyone prevent another Federer-Nadal final?  Do we dare hope for another Fedal classic?

First Quarter

My initial impression is that this is the toughest quarter.  There are a number of players here who could beat anyone, including Nadal on clay, on the right day:  Soderling, Gulbis, Monfils, possibly Cilic, and of course, Federer.  Other than Federer, I’m not sure any of them has title-worthy mentality, but the dogfights that are likely in this quarter should be some of the tournaments best viewing.

Monfils is already well known to the French crowds and is the most likely home-grown talent to go deep – with QF and SF showings here.  Cilic has been knicked for greatness and showed it with a SF at the Australian this year.  Soderling showed his talent in handing Nadal his only loss here and making last year’s final; and Gulbis, long thought talented but erratic, has finally pulled it together, already winning more matches this year than last, including a victory over Federer on clay.

In a year where Federer has looked vulnerable on clay he could hardly have been handed a tougher quarter.  Former Federer-beater Wawrinka is also lurking here.  But at the end of the day, despite a highly perilous path, if Federer plays like he can, he has to be favoured.

Federer def Gulbis

Second Quarter

Opposite of the first, this is possibly the softest quarter in the men’s draw.  The leading seeds are Murray and Tsonga.  Both have some good-ish wins on clay, but when push comes to shove, their games seem better suited for other surfaces.  Murray made QF here last year, and Tsonga the round of 16.  One wouldn’t expect much more of them except that someone has to emerge from this quarter as a semi-finalist.

Other candidates (and their best previous performance here) are Baghdatis (R16), Isner (R32), Berdych (R16), Youzhny (R16), the declining Robredo (QF x 4), Garcia-Lopez (R64), or possibly first-timer Thiemo de Bakker.  None would be an obvious pick to make a semi-final.  Murray may well lose in the first round to a resurfacing Gasquet who hasn’t played here since 2007, but given Gasquet’s poor form this year (at least until this week), it’s hard to see him going far.  Still, SOMEONE has to win.  Isner has at least shown a lot of heart this year and a finalist performance in Belgrade means he can make his game work on clay, but picking him over Murray in a possible R16 meeting is dicey.

Isner def de Bakker

Third Quarter

Normally, in the last couple of years, I would have looked no further than Djokovic, and declared him the obvious favourite for the semi-finals.  However, Novak has struggled this year.  He did manage a SF in Monte Carlo so can’t be counted out.

The next highest seed at 6 is Roddick, who has only made the round of 16 once in 8 attempts.  Roddick has shown some nice results on clay, but those were mostly in America.  The European stuff seems less amenable to his heavy-hitting game.  Roddick has been in excellent form this year, making the final at Indian Wells and winning Miami.  He may well be the favourite for Wimbledon.  He hasn’t played since Miami, and although I have absolutely no reason for saying it, a last minute withdrawal here, effectively skipping the entire clay court season, wouldn’t surprise me.

Ferrero and Querrey have both posted some good clay results this year and may meet in a R32 clash for the right to face Djokovic. 

The other big name looming in this section, at least on clay, is Ferrer.  Twice a quarter-finalist here, Ferrer has posted a tour-leading 33 wins this year, including semi-finals at Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid, and a runner-up to Nadal in Rome.  He has to be considered one of the favourites.  The potential match against Djokovic in the quarters could be a classic – if Djokovic can get there.

Ferrer def Djokovic

Fourth Quarter

Were it not for Nadal’s loss here last year, we could just pencil him in here and move on.  Nadal has looked invincible on clay this year.  But there are some excellent clay players in his quarter, including Almagro (QF),  Gonzalez (SF), Ljubicic (SF), Hewitt (QF), up and comer, Thomaz Belluci, and most significantly, perhaps, fellow lefty countryman, Fernando Verdasco.  Verdasco is given 4^th best odds for the tournament by the bookies, and has had a stellar clay season, winning Barcelona, semis in Rome, finalist to Nadal in Monte Carlo.  Still, it’s hard to imagine anyone besting Nadal.

Nadal def Verdasco

First Semi

If Federer can make it through the gauntlet of his quarter he should be able to handle whatever unlikely semi-finalist he may face.  If Federer does not make it to the semis, he will lose his #1 ranking if Nadal wins, leaving him one week short of the all time record for weeks at #1 held by Sampras.

Federer def Isner

Second Semi

Ferrer may be playing his best clay game ever.

Nadal def Ferrer

Final

A big shocker this one...  Hopefully Federer can keep it close.

Nadal def Federer

Average odds from bookies.com just before the draw was posted

1.       Nadal  1.39

2.       Federer 4.76

3.       Djokovic 16.25

4.       Verdasco 30.19

5.       Murray 31.00

6.       Gulbis 32.06

7.       Ferrer 34.25

8.       Soderling 51.69

9.       Almagro 66.69

10.   Monfils 99.56

11.   Tsonga 116.47

12.   Gonzalez 117.75