Australian Open Women – 2011 - 14 Jan 2011

Australian Open Women – 2011

Two consecutive Serena-less slams.  When she’s around, it’s “predictable” but when she’s not, it’s “wide open”.  But is it really?  The slam club is an exclusive one.  Is anyone besides Clijsters, Henin, Venus Williams, or Sharapova likely to win?  Someone other than Kuznetsova, Schiavone, or Ivanovic?

Top Quarter – Wozniacki (1)

All eyes will be on Wozniacki.  And along with it a ton of pressure.  Is Wozniacki a worthy #1?  Fairly or not, anything less than a slam title would anoint her with the label ‘unworthy’ in the minds of many.  Hardly fair judgment on a 20 year old who is still working on improving her game.  I think Wozniacki might get there someday – to actual slam favourite status, but for now I think she’ll need some lucky breaks to get that elusive first slam at this year’s AO.  Cibulkova (29), Wickmayer (21), and Bartoli (15) are all in her half of this quarter and have shown some promising results this year.  Coupled with Wozniacki’s dodgy early results, one loss (to Cibulkova), no wins, an upset could be brewing.  Even more dangerous perhaps are former slam champs Kuznetsova (23), Schiavone (6), and especially Henin (11).  All three are unpredictable for their own reasons but a good deep run and even a title shot from any of them would not be shocking, especially Henin.  Especially Henin.  I’ll be watching teen Rebecca Marino as well to see what fire burns within.

Henin d Wozniacki

2^nd Quarter – VWilliams (4)

If she keeps her head together and the error count down, Venus could blaze through this quarter.  That’s been a big ask from her of late.  She has good days and bad days, which goes with being 30.  Other big names in this quarter are Azarenka (8) and Li (9) who could meet in R16, as well as Sharapova (14), a potential R16er for Venus.  Dangerous floaters include Kanepi (20) who has shown some decent grand slam mettle of late (quarters at USO and Wimbledon) and Petkovic (30) whom everyone seems to be tagging as a player to watch.  Li was impressive here last year in the semis and made quarters at Wimbledon.  She’s also in a final this weekend.  Azarenka has the big game to beat anyone and keeps getting tagged as a slam favourite, although she’s only made it as far as the quarters (3 times).  Will she finally harness her game, her emotions, and her pendency for over-intensity?  Rounding out this loaded quarter is Sharapova.  She’s sticking to the story that her strokes are off because of mechanical changes she’s had to make to avoid injury.  But whispers are growing that it’s her head.  Whatever it is, it’s clear she’s not the player she once was – not that any opponent will take her lightly.

Li d VWilliams

3^rd Quarter – Clijsters (3)

If Clijsters can play even moderately, it seems unlikely anyone in this quarter could derail her.  The first rounder with last year’s #2 seed Safina would have looked like an awful draw last year, but don’t believe the hype – I’m expecting a blowout.  If it comes down to a grudge match with her conqueror here last year Petrova (13) in R16 – again Clijsters will be heavily favoured.  She may also have both Serbs, Jankovic (7) and Ivanovic (19) to contend with.  Jankovic has been abysmal lately but is blessed with a relatively easy draw to R16 where she could face ARadwanska (12) coming back from injury and in unknown form, or Kleybanova (24), a dangerous but streaky player.  Ivanovic has been re-finding good form but has not moved out of the glass shop (ie fragile) in my books yet.  She certainly looks far from the form that took her to an AO final and French title in 2008.

Clijsters d Kleybanova

Bottom Quarter – Zvonareva (2)

If the Vera Zvonareva shows up who made the finals of the last two grand slam events, she could sail through this relatively open quarter.  But I’m not holding out hope.  First round opponent Bammer is always dangerous, and, surviving that, she could get promising up and comer teen Jovanovski in the second.  Pavlyuchenkova (16) is the world’s highest ranked teen and a possible R16 for Vera.  Stosur (5), Kvitova (25), Pennetta (22), and Peer (10) are her most likely QF opponents.  Stosur managed R16 here last year but has never looked at her best with the pressure of home expectations.  Kvitova splashed onto the scene last year in Wimbledon’s semis and has already bagged a tournament this year.  Can she do it again?  Will Stosur be able to focus and play her best?  It’s a tough road for Zvonareva and I expect some near misses and stiff fights, but she’s still the favourite.

Zvonareva d Kvitova

Top Semi

Henin has implied she has low expectations for herself at this year’s tournament.  Yet the draw seems to be breaking her way.  Li was very tough last year in Australia, and honestly, I would not be surprised to see her in the final.  But if that big semi match comes, my money will be on the side of the woman who has won a slam semi 12 times before.

Henin d Li

Bottom Semi

Zvonareva should be able to give Clijsters fits – just based on how their games match up, but Clijsters game can be so big, it could also be a blowout.

Clijsters d Zvonareva

Final

Henin has won all three major finals between the world’s top two Belgians.  But the last one was in 2004.  Clijsters dominated her countrywoman in head to head results last year and based on current form and confidence, I expect that to continue.  But it could be close.  Henin is a scrapper.

Clijsters d Henin

Bookies – 13 Jan 2010 (decimal odds averages from bookies.com)

2.93	Clijsters, K
6.17	Henin, J
7.37	Wozniacki, C
11.13	Zvonareva, V
14.28	Sharapova, M
14.65	Azarenka, V
15.43	Stosur, S
17.45	Williams, V
22.40	Ivanovic, A
26.55	Kuznetsova, S
42.58	Kvitova, P
45.16	Jankovic, J
49.53	Petkovic, A
50.15	Wickmayer, Y
52.89	Li, N
66.13	Safina, D
72.95	Pennetta, F
73.05	Bartoli, M
74.26	Schiavone, F
75.17	Radwanska, A
75.88	Pavlyuchenkova, A
82.20	Groth, J
83.42	Kleybanova, A
89.00	Cibulková, D