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2010 US Open Preview – Women - 26 Aug 2010

2010 US Open Preview – Women

26 August 2010
It feels wide open.  With Serena and Justine out, the two most dominant players of the last 9 years – holding 19 grand slam titles since 2002 – are removed.  But will a new champion really be feted at USO 2010?  There are still four former champions playing – Kim, Venus, Maria, and Svetlana, and they may well be favoured over the rest of the field.  But what about Wozniacki, Azarenka, and Jankovic?  And let’s not forget Ivanovic, Stosur, Dementieva, and Zvonareva.  It really is anyone’s game.

Top Quarter
Her appearance in the US final last year was a shock to most, but this year Caroline Wozniacki arrives as the top seed.  She backed up last year’s runner up showing with a league-leading 3 titles this year, including last week’s Montreal title.  With the most titles of any player born in the 90’s she is the foremost of the new generation and perhaps most likely to first cop a slam.  She leads in the US swing, points accumulated since Wimbledon, so her top seeded status is perhaps justified.  But few would agree – at least among the bookies.
Looming as a potential fourth rounder is Maria Sharapova.  The comeback from shoulder surgery last year has rivalled elephant gestation in length, but finalist performances in Stanford and Cincinnati signal that she may be about to give birth to a fourth major title.
Potential quarter opponents are led by Kuznetsova and Na Li.  Li has had an exceptional year, cracking the top 10 and showing Australian semi and Wimbledon quarter performances.  The threat to go even farther may lie in Kuznetsova.  Since her US title in 2004, Kuznetsova has made the final of every 6th successive slam with metronome consistency.  If she keeps it up, she will feature in this year’s US final.
First round match to watch – Kai-Chen Chang vs Carla Suarez Navarro.  If you can get by all the syllables, both these players have shown they can beat the best.  Their encounter could be a dud or spectacular.
Sharapova def Kuznetsova

Second Quarter
The highest seed here is Jankovic at #4.  She has had some fine performances this year and is fifth in both the official rankings and in points accumulated this year.  But she’s been virtually invisible since the clay season, mustering few wins and losing to two players ranked over 100.  A repeat of her 2008 final seems far-fetched.
More likely to go far perhaps is Vera Zvonareva.  After her spectacular 3-seed-takeout runner-up at Wimbledon, her rebound low has been unexpectedly short.  She made the final in Montreal and looks poised for another deep slam run.
Also present in this quarter are the talented Petrova, last year semifinal surprise Wickmayer, and the always dangerous A-Rad Radwanska.  Wickmayer hasn’t looked particularly ready to join the upper echelon this year, Petrova is notoriously unpredictable, and A-Rad, despite being a consistent performer who could upset anyone, just doesn’t look to have the firepower to ever go deep when it really counts – at a slam.  This motley crue is ripe for a surprise and the likes of Kaia Kanepi or Andrea Petkovic could well be it.
Zvonareva def Jankovic

Third Quarter
Venus Williams has shown cunning and bravery in her US Open preparation this year, or perhaps blind faith.  Her last two tournaments were the French and Wimbledon.  That’s just 9 matches since May and none in 8 weeks.  If the last decade has taught us anything it is that there’s nothing as a dangerous as an apparently rusty Williams sister.  With little sis sitting this one out, this may be Venus’ time to hold the trophy after a 9-year hiatus.
The next highest seed is #6 Schiavone.  After the tournament of her life at the French, no one is expecting anything from Schiavone – not that she doesn’t have the talent, but her desire to fight tooth and nail just won’t be the same.
More potent a threat may lie in Azarenka who won Stanford and semi-ed in Montreal.  Few doubt that Azarenka has huge game but she has not shown the ability to harness it consistently.  Still, with good form this summer, no one wants to face her.
Also dangerous in this quarter are Pavlyuchenkova and Shahar Peer.  Few will expect repeat performances of their best GS runs from last year’s quarterfinalist Oudin and and Wimbledon semifinalist Pironkova.
Azarenka def VWilliams

Bottom Quarter
At the bottom of the draw is the defending champion and bookies’ favourite, Kim Clijsters, now risen to #3 in the world.  Despite the ranking, Clijsters has accumulated only 8th most ranking points this year.  But with a victory in Cincinnati against a loaded field, Clijsters has found good form at just the right time to take advantage of a weakened field.
Possible fourth round opponents for Clijsters include Zheng, Ivanovic, and Bartoli.  All are talented and could take advantage of a Clijsters upset, but if she maintains her form, Clijsters should fight through.
Facing her in the quarters could be fifth seed Stosur, 12th seed Dementieva, and now unseeded Dinara Safina.  Stosur has experienced a post slam-final hangover since the French.  Dementieva has looked spotty all year, and Safina is only slowly coming back from what seems to amount to an injury to her winning psyche.
Clijsters def Dementieva

Semis
With parity the rule in women’s tennis, and that heightened by the absence of Serena Williams, the predictions I’ve made seem highly speculative.  I’ve attempted to capture the trends, the highest probabilities of success perhaps, in a world of uncertainty.
Sharapova def Zvonareva
Clijsters def Azarenka

Final
Clijsters def Sharapova




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