2010 Preview of Women’s Tennis – 20 November 2009
I’ve never thought of myself as inviting abuse or wanting to look like an idiot, but for some reason I just love speculating about the future in pro tennis. The crystal ball is wrong more often than it is right, but that said, it’s still fun to explore what happened in 2009 and speculate on what it might mean for 2010. So here are my opinions, guesses, and wild hunches...
Serena Williams
She’s won 3 of the last 5 GS titles and has been ranked #1 or within spitting distance of it since Sep 2008. It looks like we are in another Serena Era, though not as dominant as the one she imposed on women’s tennis in 2002-03. US Open semi-final meltdown aside, she appears more mature and committed to the game than she was 7 years ago.
Unless she doesn’t play, there’s a good chance she will still be ranked #1 after the Australian Open since she is likely to be leading Safina by about 800 WTA points during the tournament and Wozniacki and Kuznetsova by about 1300 points. That psychological cushion might help her keep playing at the top of her game for awhile, maybe the whole year.
On the other hand, Serena has won the Australian Open all four of the last odd-numbered years and none of the even-numbered ones. If that trend holds (ok, it’s totally superstitious), the gap between her and the rest of the field could disappear.
Here’s a breakdown of the baseline ranking points to the start of the Australian Open – this is equal to the current points minus all points accumulated to the end of AO 2009: Serena 6875, Safina 6080, Wozniacki 5525, Kuznetsova 5521, Venus 5026, Azarenka 4260, Dementieva 3935, Jankovic 3685, ARadwanska 3325, and for good measure (and leaving out some players): Sharapova 2820, Zvonareva 2660, Clijsters 2340, Ivanovic 1837. The only one within decent range of Serena is Safina, and chances of her overtaking seem increasingly remote.
Serena really has nothing left to prove after such a strong 2009; plus, how much can she continue to enjoy the grind of playing so many tournaments – she played 16 in 2009, the most ever for her. Hopefully she continues to play her best tennis when she really wants to, which seems to be at the grand slams. Expect a strong performance from her in the 4 majors and more debate about the real #1.
Standing in her way, and the big question mark of 2010 will be... The Belgians.
Kim Clijsters
In just her 3rd tournament back after a 2 year absence, Clijsters equalled her career-best performance with a victory at perhaps the most significant tournament on the calendar, the US Open. She is arguably the second best player of2009 based on her quality of play, and in WTA points earned per tournament she actually edged out Serena 585 to 567. But with only 4 tournaments under her belt, that stat doesn’t mean much.
Ok so I just labelled the US Open the biggest tournament of the women’s calendar. This is not mere hyperbole. Since 1990 (20 years) the eventual #1 for the year has won the US Open of that same year 14 times. For Wimbledon that number is only 7, for the French Open it is 11, and for the Australian it is 7. (Of course, there are caveats: my list of #1’s is based on the WTA player of the year, and the ITF player of the year. Those lists did not agree in the following years: 1994, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2006, and 2008 for which years the majority opinion is, I believe, Sanchez-Vicario, Hingis, VWilliams, Davenport, Henin, and SWilliams, respectively. ) But back to Clijsters...
With such a spectacular and satisfying comeback arriving so apparently easily for Kim, one has to wonder if she will have the motivation to keep that slam-winning intensity going. The recently departed Marat Safin said that he wanted to win the 2005 Australian Open to prove to himself that his lone GS victory to that point wasn’t a fluke. After that proof he proceeded to never win another ATP event. Hopefully Kim will not feel as much satisfaction, and will again threaten at both the Slams and other tournaments in 2010. But with motherhood constantly crying her name and having already proven she’s still got it, I suspect her comeback won’t last long. Plus it looks likely to get very crowded at the top in 2010 with the return of that other Belgian... and I don’t mean Yanina Wickmayer’s return from her (non)doping suspension...
Justine Henin
“And there was much rejoicing.”
Few people were pleased to see Henin bolt from the game in 2008. And it is with great anticipation that most fans herald her return. We know that she is entered in the Australian Open and has a long term goal to win Wimbledon.
Realistically, what can we expect of Henin in 2010? Winning the Australian may be unlikely because her match-toughness and confidence will probably not have fully returned. A 5th French Open is a real possibility if she has found her form by then. Clijsters will likely also feature highly in the bookies estimations for Roland Garros if she shows up. Wimbledon may have to wait another year for Henin until she gets a little more match-tough and perhaps lets the superlative grass court games of the Williamses age one year closer to being past their primes – although Serena’s prime does not yet appear to be waning much.... For Henin to realize her W goal will likely require more time and effort than the apparent ease of Clijsters’ US victory. A US title is in the realm of possibility for Henin; however, just like Serena at the Aus Open, a Belgian has won the US Open the last 4 odd-numbered years – so not 2010. The good news for fans is that the longer it takes for her to cop that big W, the longer she is likely to stick around playing the game. That’s assuming she stays motivated and doesn’t suffer from the burn-out-itis she caught in 2008.
An interesting fact about Henin is that the period of her GS singles victories coincided with a significant reduction in GS titles for the Williams sisters. Serena won only 3 and Venus only 2 majors between Justine’s 1st and 7th GS titles. In the two years since Henin left the game the sisters have cranked off 4 Major victories. Did the sisters’ lack of play make room for Henin? or had Henin effectively driven them from the game? Between 2003 and 2008 Henin was 5-3 against Serena and 1-1 against Venus – hardly conclusive. But given the limited number of times these top players met in 5 and a half years, it looks more like the Williamses just weren’t playing that much or weren’t making it far enough to face Henin.
It seems amazing but there has been only one Grand Slam final featuring a Williams sister facing a Belgian and that was in 2001 at Wimbledon before Justine really reached her full potential. Let’s hope for many such clashes this year. I expect Henin to have a big impact on 2010.
Venus Williams
Venus seems in danger of becoming the forgotten sister. She’s ranked “only” number 6, however she was runner-up at both Wimbledon and the Year End Championships, and won 2 titles and 3 GS doubles titles in 2009. Hardly shabby. She might even have been a legitimate contender for #1 if little sis hadn’t blocked those two big finals. It’s tempting to say Venus is getting long in the tooth, that her prime is past. She had a lot of early losses this year – seven or eight... but I’m not willing to count her out yet—especially at Wimbledon. When the juices get flowing she is formidable, maybe as good as ever. The scary thing is that her nemesis, Serena, might still be improving.
Dinara Safina
Safina has certainly had her chances in the last 2 years – 3 grand slam finals and 26 weeks at #1. Her critics love to draw comparisons with her emotional and flamboyant brother. But in many ways Safina is very different. If anything her flaw has been wanting it too much, not Marat’s apparent indifference.
It takes time to adjust to the top. But after trying and failing in three Major finals, we can only hope Safina’s psychology has not become the self-fulfilling prophecy of “I’m never going to win.” It seems that self-doubt is spreading in her game. The last half of 2009 was riddled with surprising losses and little to cheer about.
The prognosis is not good for her in 2010. It seems unlikely she will channel the cool-headedness she needs and with the top crowded by Williamses, Belgians, and hopefully Maria Sharapova, Safina looks likely to slip a few spots in oh-ten. Of course, that wake-up call and some stiffer competition might be just the thing to help her reduce expectations and tip the balance from over-intensity to detachment and concentration – and allow her to mine her significant talent.
Maria Sharapova
2010 will be a telling year for Sharapova. She appears as mentally sound as ever, the greater question mark is the shoulder, or maybe the changes it has necessitated in her game. Will she be able to match the form that has taken her to 3 grand slam titles? Theoretically, and I delve into superstition again, this is her year to win the French. Every even-numbered year she wins the “next” grand slam. Wimbledon in 2004, the US Open in 2006, the Australian in 2008, so “logically” the French in 2010... seems far-fetched, but why not? I for one, won’t be betting on her. The Belgians have a much better track record and make a more compelling case at the French than does Sharapova’s game which has not seemed particularly suited for clay – only one of her 20 titles has come on clay.
I’d expect her to make more noise at the Australian Open on a faster court with the sure footing she seems to like and with some key opponents lacking match-toughness. I wouldn’t count her out of the US Open either, problem is, by then her opponents will be match tough too. Realistically, I don’t see her as the favourite for any of the majors in 2010 – in the mix at the top, but not a favourite.
Svetlana Kuznetsova
The number 3 from 2009 continues to baffle. Just when we thought she really was an OSW she surprised just about everyone with a victory at the French. It’s tempting to say she won by default – the Belgians were gone, the Serbians had deteriorated significantly, the Williams sisters have always been a little awkward on clay, and Sharapova was injured. All that was left was to show up and accept the title that Safina seemed so intent on thrusting her way. But she still had to win 7 matches to do it. Painted in another light, Kuzzie took out the top 2 in the world, including a spirited 7-5-in-the-third fight from a determined Serena Williams and a demolition of the top seed in the final. However you call it, after raising suspicions she was a head case for years, Kuznetsova showed both the talent and calm detachment of a champion.
After that success, she had a rather middling summer and led us to think the highs of the year were past. But she surprised with a victory in Beijing and two extremely close matches with the Williams sisters at the YEC.
What on earth will 2010 bring for her? Kuznetsova is one of the few players who can hang with anyone on any given day if she’s finds the balance between intensity and calm that allows her to explore the breadth of her game. She might surprise us with a big victory in 2010 but it’s a long shot.
Caroline Wozniacki
It is a sign of the almost embarrassing richness of talent and depth at the top of the women’s game that the eighth player up for consideration is the world #4 and one of the hottest youngsters on the tour. And we haven’t even gotten to the Serbians...
Close observers expected Wozniacki to make some significant strides in 2009, but few expected her to make a GS final and finish the year at #4. She stands a significant chance of rising to number three by the end of the Aus Open and seems like a real contender for the top.
However, she has shown little aptitude for beating the big dogs, unless you count two victories over each of Kuznetsova and Dementieva in 2009. There is doubt about the depth of her talent, and the lack of a big weapon in her game has not gone unnoticed. Often those who become Major champions have intangible qualities that are not easily quantified. She’s still very young (19) and there may be reserves of mental toughness and “fire in the belly” that will allow her to one day hoist a Grand Slam trophy or the #1 ranking. I’m not betting on it. I expect there to be some big girls laying it down this year and I have my doubts that Wozniacki will be able to keep up. Still, it would be interesting if she proved me wrong and added another name to the champion list.
Elena Dementieva
At 28 she’s no spring chicken and I expect her to lose more ground in 2010. Her game can be lovely to watch and positively ferocious, but she rarely seems able to channel it all when she needs to at the latter stages of the big tournaments. The 2008 Olympic medal was a huge victory that released the choker-albatross she seemed to feel hanging around her neck. It seems she is now free to explore her limits without so much negative pressure, but with so many big guns at the top of the game, the chance of her breaking through at a major are increasingly unlikely. I’d expect a top 10 finish from her in 2010 but wouldn’t be shocked if even that didn’t happen.
Jelena Jankovic
She’s hardly old at 24, but it seems her best days are behind her. Like Wozniacki, she lacks the big weapon that could make her a Major champion. The stint at #1 in 2008 almost seems puzzling now – how did that happen? It’s looking more and more like good timing and the absence of some big names helped her out. Jelena has shown a lot of inner competitive fire in the past, but that may not be enough to take her to the top of a talent-laden 2010. She has a good chance of finishing the year in the top 10.
Ana Ivanovic
The best case scenario is that 2009 was Ivanovic’s sophomore slump. Will she find the form that took her to a French Open title and a stint at the #1 ranking? Hopefully she hasn’t gone Chakvetadze on us. Her comments about trying to cling to the #1 ranking sound alarmingly Safina-like in their desperation. My guess is she will start to rebuild in 2010 but the march forward will be slow. She’s still young (21) and her peak in a couple years could coincide with the retirements or declines of the Williams-Belgian hegemony. That could leave her battling for the top with Sharapova and Wozniacki – not insurmountable. However, chances are a new wunderkind will have arisen by then. In the meantime she might be able to battle back into the top 10 in 2010.
Victoria Azarenka
It’s looking increasingly like Azarenka’s all or nothing game could beat anybody. But it also looks like she doesn’t have the consistency or mentality to string together enough wins to do much better than she did in 2009. She won her first 3 titles this year and she’s 20, which is reasonably old in women’s tennis. By the end of the year she turned twenty Serena had 11 titles, Clijsters 19, Hingis 35, and Graf 44. On the other hand Henin had only 6, but I’m not sure I see the kind of thoughtful development and consistency that advanced Henin’s game happening in Azarenka’s. She’ll be lucky to be in the top 10 by the end of the year.
Top 20 Prospects
Vera Zvonareva - A brilliant start to 2009 including SF at AO and the title at Indian Wells fizzled after injury kept her out of the clay season. She’s streaky and could threaten the top 10 in 2010 – which is not a move in the right direction.
Agnieszka Radwanska - great game, lovely player, just doesn’t seem to have the weapons to make an impact at the top. She will have done very well if she can hold onto yearend #10 for a third straight year.
Whether Yanina Wickmayer wins or loses, the fight with WADA over failing to meet the anti-doping whereabouts requirements could derail her upward trajectory. Is the 20-year old even a serious contender? Starting with her US Open run she finished the year on a 14-3 streak. Those are top-5 numbers. But there were no spectacular baton-passing wins in that run, and the top player she beat in her SF showing at the US was #18 Razzano. Another top 20 finish in 2010 would probably represent a triumph of sorts.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – a SF at Indian Wells and QF in Beijing in 2009 look promising, as do two wins over VWilliams and one over Jankovic. She has not been showing the consistency of a future top-tenner, but at just 18 and with some big game, that could still develop.
Melanie Oudin was Vlad the Impaler of US Open 2009, leaving a trail of Eastern European corpses in her wake. We have yet to see how she will fare playing more frequently in deeper waters, but at 18, and with proven mental toughness, a top 20 finish in 2010 seems possible.
Really dark horses
Kimiko Date Krumm appears to have reserves of will and ability that could help her improve on 2009’s showing. Jelena Dokic will do well to match 2009. Sorana Cirstea (age 19) and Alexandra Dulgheru (20) had some big wins in ’09 and could threaten the top 20 in 2010. Youngsters Michelle Larcher de Brito (16) and Christina McHale (17) look to have the talent to move up. They may make some noise in 2010 but they’re probably too young to approach the top 20 till 2011.
GS Summary
So after all the prevarications and contradictory statements above, here’s my top 6 list (in order) for each Major in 2010:
Australian Open – SWilliams, Sharapova, Clijsters, Henin, VWilliams, Wozniacki
French Open – Henin, Clijsters, Kuznetsova, SWilliams, Sharapova, Safina
Wimbledon – VWilliams, SWilliams, Henin, Clijsters, Dementieva, Sharapova
US Open – SWilliams, Henin, Clijsters, Sharapova, VWilliams, Kuznetsova
2010 Yearend Top 10 Projection
1 SWilliams
2 Henin
3 Clijsters
4 Sharapova
5 VWilliams
6 Kuznetsova
7 Wozniacki
8 Safina
9 Jankovic
10 Dementieva
And Ivanovic in a close 11th...
So, thoughtful prognosis or total crap? I admit I’ll be happy if a quarter of it actually comes true. But it really got me thinking about what we saw in 2009. I’m hoping 2010 will be a block buster clash of the titans between the Williamses, the Belgians, and Sharapova. I’d love to hear your projections.
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