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Australian Open Men – 2011 - 13 Jan 2011

Australian Open Men – 2011
You wouldn’t know there are 126 other men in the draw.  Everyone’s acting like it’s a two-horse show.  Nadal and Federer.  And it’s hard to disagree.  The dynamic duo has won 21 of the last 23 slams.  They have shown that they are simply better than everyone else.  The field’s best hopes are probably long serving second fiddles Murray or Djokovic, but it’s become evident that Andy and Novak are not going to improve beyond Rafa and Roger.  Juan Martin Del Potro might have been able to overpower the duo at one time, but his long absence has left huge questions around his game and uncertainty about his ability to bounce back.  So how does the draw break down?
Top Quarter – Nadal (1)
Nadal looms large and unbeatable in this quarter.  Cilic (15) has floundered since his semi here last year, and along with Lopez (31) and Isner (20) should not be able to take down Nadal.  Possible quarter final opponents for Rafa include Youzhny (10), Llodra (22), Ferrer (7), or the winner of the first round clash between Nalbandian (27) and Hewitt.  Nalbandian or Youzhny on their best days can trouble Nadal, but even if they bring their best, if Nadal is also in his upper range my money is on Nadal.  Nadal will be motivated for this tournament and the chance to hold the non-calendar slam.  Will he crack?  He’s likely to be intense and focussed throughout with few lapses.  I’ll also be keeping an eye on the progress of teen Berankis.
Nadal d Ferrer
2nd Quarter – Soderling (4)
This is one of the most competitive quarters in the draw.  Favourites include Soderling and former Aus finalists Murray (5), Tsonga (13), and Baghdatis (21).  Strong runs by last year’s French semi-finalist, Melzer (11) and Juan Martin Del Potro are also possible.  Tsonga has finished finalist, quarter, semi in the last 3 AO’s and is likely to be a tough customer for anyone if he stays healthy.  It was encouraging to see Del Potro tough out a 3 set win this week.  It’s hard to know if he will be able to play his way back into form during the tournament.  Soderling has a huge game when he’s on, and he seems to be gaining confidence that he can bring it anywhere.  It’s shocking he’s never been past the second round.  Murray is dangerous on any surface any time and should be able to fight through this tough section.
Murray d Tsonga
3rd Quarter – Djokovic (3)
The top half of this quarter has Berdych (6), Verdasco (9), and Davydenko (23) as favourites.  Berdych has been troughing since his semi and finalist showings at the last French and Wimbledon.  In his last 8 slams, Verdasco has finished R16 four times, 2 quarters, and 1 semi.  On that form he’ll net another R16 or QF.  Davydenko is one of few to have a winning record against Nadal (6-4) including their last 4 meetings.  After floundering following rehab of a broken wrist last year, he finally seems to be rounding into the form he showed a year ago at this time.  Gasquet and teen Harrison could meet in the second round.  Both may have the talent to do some damage, but Gasquet seems increasingly a head case and Harrison may not have the experience and self-belief to go deep.  Djokovic is likely to dominate the bottom half of this quarter and will be favoured to move to the semis.
Djokovic d Davydenko
Bottom Quarter – Federer (2)
Not surprisingly perhaps for Roddick (8), he finds himself in the Federer quarter.  Roddick has lost 8 times to Fed in slam play and never beaten him – it’s gotta feel a little hopeless.  But Roddick shows pluck and if a 9th meeting is in the offing, he will believe he can win.  Challenging him for that right may be Wawrinka (19) and Monfils (12).  Can Wawrinka follow up on his great USO run?  Can Monfils follow up on his great Paris indoor run?  Fish (16) could face Federer in R16, but even his best won’t likely upset a focussed Federer.
Federer d Roddick
Top Semi
Even though Murray is officially #5 and not likely to move from that position after AO because of his fine result here last year, no one will be really surprised to see (what’s increasingly become) the (long standing) big 4 in the semis.  Although Murray is well below 50% against Nadal (4-9), four times is a lot of times to beat Nadal, and one of those wins came here last year.  Which should provide Nadal extra motivation to lay down a beatin’.
Nadal d Murray
Bottom Semi
It could be another titanic clash like their USO semi last year, but given Federer’s great form since taking on Annacone as coach as well as the Fed’s positive attitude and aggressive play, I think Roger will sail through.
Federer d Djokovic
Final
The dream final between Federer and Nadal is what most will be hoping for and is what the bookies are predicting.  They gave the early edge to Nadal, but based on Federer’s fine recent form have swung just marginally in his favour.  It’s tempting to wonder if the burden of the consecutive slam will weigh Nadal down.  Given the steely resolve he’s shown in past pressure situations I think the pressure of impending greatness will make him fierce and it will take a Herculean effort to beat him.  Enter Hercules.
Federer d Nadal

Bookies – 13 Jan 2010 (decimal odds averages from bookies.com)
2.87
Federer, R
2.95
Nadal, R
7.77
Murray, A
8.64
Djokovic, N
16.86
Söderling, R
33.90
Davydenko, N
38.90
Roddick, A
39.43
Del Potro, JM
45.19
Berdych, T
53.29
Tsonga, JW
59.81
Monfils, G
59.81
Nalbandian, D

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