2010 US Open preview – Men - 26 Aug 2010

2010 US Open preview – Men

26 August 2010

After five years of the field serving as Federer fodder, the stranglehold was finally broken last year by Del Potro.  With JMDP unable to defend, it seems the time has come for the pretenders to raze the castle and for one of them to emerge victorious, waving the trophy high.  But who will it be?  And is King Federer really dead?  After 7 months title-less, he claimed Cincinnati on Sunday and is rounding ominously into form…

Nadal Quarter

Just two weeks ago the leading candidate according to those who predict with their money, the bookies, was Rafael Nadal.  Nadal has been stellar this year winning the clay slam of Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid, and Paris, and then following that up with a second Wimbledon title.  He has accumulated so many points that Roger will be hard-pressed to overtake him in the yearend race even if Federer wins the US Open, the two remaining 1000 tournaments, and the yearend championships.

But Nadal has faltered since then.  It’s not that he’s played badly on American hard courts, but he hasn’t been invincible the way he was in Europe.  He fell to Baghdatis and Murray, two of the best hard court players and arguably the hottest players this summer.

The good news is Nadal’s draw.  He should sail through to the quarters fairly smoothly, marred only by the possibility of a bit of testiness from Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round.

There to meet Nadal the leading candidates are Ferrer, Gulbis, Nalbandian, and Verdasco.  They may all be capable of beating Nadal on a good day, especially, perhaps, a resurgent Nalbandian.  But after these four beat the stuffing out of each other, should they survive that long, Nadal is the heavy favourite.

Nadal def Verdasco

Murray Quarter

Andy Murray may finally be ready.  He’s looked ready before, making the US final in 2008 and then making bookies’ favourite for the 2009 Australian.  He looked close again in this year’s Australian final, but then troughed through a dry spring and summer until finally hoisting some hardware in Canada after 10 months without.  Is he for real this time?

There’s no question Murray is massively talented, but he’s had the misfortune to play against two of the greatest of all time, and there just hasn’t been room for a lot of negotiating GS titles in the last 6 years (only 3 have escaped the dominating duo).  Nevertheless, he’s played in brilliant form this summer and showed he can win with aggression when he seized the final from Federer in Toronto.

Murray has fallen victim to the odd upset in the past, and candidates this time include Querrey in the fourth round or Youzhny, Isner, and the unpredictably entertaining Stepanek in the quarters.

A much more serious challenge may come from 7 seed Tomas Berdych who made semis at the French and the final at Wimbledon.  When Berdych is on he looks effortless, gliding around the court and cannoning impossible winners off both wings.  The question has always been with his head.  When will he implode in a slew of errors or worse, simply uninspired non-aggressive play?  But this year has shown remarkable consistency for Berdych.  If there is a match with Murray it could easily go either way and will likely be a festival of fireworks, shotmaking, and impossible gets that will make every minute worthwhile.

Murray def Berdych

Djokovic Quarter

The third quarter is packed with dangerous talent and hot streakers who would be picked as potential upsetters if they weren’t all in the same crucible.  The list of favourite emergents includes Davydenko, Monfils, Roddick, Baghdatis, Fish, and the third seed, Djokovic.

The talented Davydenko has been working himself back into form after peaking at last year’s yearend championships and defeating Federer and Nadal in January, only to be forced to recover from a broken wrist that had him missing much of the spring season.  Monfils has also battled injury this year.  Roddick is always dangerous on American hard courts but hasn’t showed the desire that took him to a Wimbledon final last year.  Meanwhile Fish and Baghdatis have been on fire this summer and will not be underestimated by even the most fearsome opponents.  It’s almost a shame they are slated to meet in the third round, but it could provide for some spectacular early round bashing. 

The winner of that potential encounter could face Djokovic in the round of 16 and may well be favoured against the Serb based on recent form.  But Djokovic is a talented and slippery character and just when you count him out he has the ability to turn the lights on and play his way through a murderous draw.  It may depend on whether or not Baghdatis can maintain his red hot summer streak and finally overcome an 0 fer 4 record against Novak.

Djokovic def Roddick

Federer Quarter

After dazzling with Numero 16 in Australia, Federer looked decided plebeian most of the year, quartering at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.  But after taking on Paul Annacone in the long-vacant coach position and titling in Cincinnati, tales of the Fed’s demise seem exaggerated.  Or are they?  He did lose to Murray in Toronto, and Cincinnati came via Fish and Baghdatis – not the most fearsome of opponents – on paper.

But the dirt has it that Fed is back.  Confidence isn’t always logical, but when you’ve got it, no matter on what flimsiness its arrival was predicated, it’s real.  So watch out.  Federer may very well again be the favourite this year, as legions of his fans will have us believe.

A creamy draw helps too.  Hewitt in the third round is unlikely to repeat the upset he hatched on grass in June.  Melzer could be a fight in the fourth, but is he really capable of more than irritating the Express?

Looking to potential quarterfinal opponents, Cilic has looked off-form, beating no one in the top 30 since January.  Gonzalez has been a shell of his former self after recovering from a lengthy injury timeout.  Only Soderling looks like a legitimate threat. 

But despite a career high ranking of #5, Soderling has been tailing off since reaching a second consecutive French final, and has mustered only 2-2 on hardcourts this summer.  Still, he’s got a huge game and has proven he can come out of nowhere to beat anyone.

Federer def Soderling

Semis

So three years later we’re still talking about the Big Four.  It seemed their hegemony had been exploded when Juan Martin Del Potro cut through all opposition on the way to last year’s title, but after a year of injury, it now seems more salient to ask if the Argentine will ever threaten the bastille again?  I can think of no precedent for a return to the top after such a lengthy sidelining – not in the men’s game, at least.  Monica Seles may be the only exception.

Top Semi

I think Nadal is more likely to survive the gauntlet than Murray, but if Murray makes it to a sixth match, I expect his superior hardcourt sense and movement will carry him through, despite Nadal’s ferocious concentration.

Murray def Nadal

Bottom Semi

Is Federer’s seventh consecutive US final really inevitable?  Quarter final showings at Roland Garros and Wimbledon would argue against, but the odds bookmakers will give to a Djokovic-Federer clash will affirm that likelihood.

Federer def Djokovic

Final

In short, yes, Murray’s time has finally come.  He has learned to handle the pressure and his superiority in youthful legs and desire should prevail.  That said, never count out a player with Federer’s mind, hands, and feet…

Murray def Federer

1	Federer	3.26
2	Nadal	4.24
3	Murray	4.34
4	Djokovic	15.38
5	Soderling	19.50
6	Berdych	22.25
7	Roddick	23.50
8	Nalbandian	29.50
9	Fish	49.50
9	Baghdatis	49.50
11	Davydenko	51.75
12	Gulbis	92.00
13	Cilic	99.50
14	Querrey	102.00
15	Isner	124.00
16	Verdasco	156.75
17	Monfils	254.25
18	Hewitt	261.75
19	Ferrer	334.25
20	Gonzalez	414.25