Wimbledon Men 2011 – 19 June 2011

Wimbledon Men 2011 – 19 June 2011

Nadal and Federer are among the greatest players tennis has ever seen.  Future observers may look back on this as the most golden of eras, when two titans, despite 5 years difference in age, played each other so close to their primes.  With a riveting French final two weeks ago, they’ve shown us they still have it.  Will the next wave of superstars unseat them at this Wimbledon?

Top quarter

While the first two rounds look like plain sailing for Rafael Nadal, the top seed, things might get trickier by round three.  He could meet the veteran Tommy Haas who made the semifinals here last time he played in 2009.  Or more likely, he could run into rising Canadian Milos Raonic (31), who has a serve and hard-hitting game that look especially dangerous on grass.  The fourth round could bring up the hyper-talented Juan Martin Del Potro (24) or Gilles Simon (15).  Then waiting in the quarters could be Mardy Fish (10) or last year’s finalist Tomas Berdych (6).  But despite this extensive talent, do any of them have a realistic chance of beating the man who has a 14 match winning streak at Wimbledon, has just won the French open for a 6^th time, and who is still #1 in the world?

Nadal def Berdych

Second quarter

The three names that pop out of this quarter belong to Andy Murray (4), Andy Roddick (8), and Richard Gasquet (17).  Gasquet might seem the least worthy of this trio, and he has not played here for 3 years, but in 2007 he made the semifinals, coming magnificently from behind, down two sets in the quarters to Andy Roddick to win 8-6 in the fifth.  He is talented and seems to thrive on grass. 

Andy Roddick should face little opposition in sweeping to the quarters if he plays grass court tennis the way he did in 2009 when he narrowly lost in the 5^th set of the final to Federer.  But given the depth in men’s tennis these days, an Ivo Karlovic or a Feliciano Lopez might have other plans.

Which brings us to Murray.  He is knocking, banging on the door of a major breakthrough.  He’s just come off arguably the best clay season of his career and ploughed his way through the field to a victory at Queen’s on grass.  Just turned 24, he is in the prime of his tennis physicality.  On the downside is the pressure of playing at home, the insane media scrutiny he faces, and pressure from himself at his failure to have already broken through at a major despite 6 major semifinals, 3 of them runner-ups.

Even if Gasquet and Roddick muster their finest efforts I doubt it will be enough.

Murray def Roddick

Third Quarter

With 6 Wimbledon titles already, it’s almost surprising to see Roger Federer seeded at number three.  The bookies have him as a slight favourite over Rafael Nadal, while the expert journalist opinion has him just slightly behind Nadal (see below).  Despite his age, 29, he has shown that he is playing well, demonstrated by ending Djokovic’s 43 match win streak at the French Open.  He then lost a very close 4-setter to an in-form Nadal on clay.  This excellent current form is likely why the bookies have elevated him past Nadal for Wimbledon’s grass, a surface that would seem to favour Federer’s first strike style of play.

Although former finalist in 2002 David Nalbandian lurks as potential 3^rd round opponent, the most dangerous player Federer is likely to face in this quarter is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12).  Tsonga beat Nadal at Queen’s and lost narrowly in the final to Murray.  Grass will favour his serve and volley attempts, but it is doubtful he could take out a focussed Federer.  The other high seed here is David Ferrer (7) who has never been past the 4^th round at Wimbledon.

Federer def Tsonga

Fourth quarter

Robin Soderling (5) faces a dangerous opponent in Philipp Petzschner in the first round, and with a victory could be rewarded with Lleyton Hewitt in the second, the 2002 champion.  In the fourth round he could face the resurgent Florian Mayer (20) who is finally refinding the form that took him to the quarters here in 2004.  Should Soderling survive all these tests, odds are he will face Novak Djokovic in the quarters.

Djokovic (2) has lost only once this year but with both Nadal and Federer in good form and given their past successes on grass, he is definitely 3^rd fiddle, possibly 4^th if expert journalist opinion is to be believed.  Having opted out of any warmup tournaments, he may be vulnerable in his first two matches, until he finds his best grass game.  But there would appear to be little standing in his way once he gets going.  Even Soderling in the quarters should prove at best a good test for the more treacherous rounds ahead.

Djokovic def Soderling

Semis

Open era tennis has perhaps never been as stable at the top as the last 4 years.  Four players have ranked atop the heap almost that entire time and two of them have been there for 6 years.  That they are favoured to feature as the four semifinalists at this tournament is a surprise to no one.  What would be shocking would be if someone else were to win.  Del Potro seemed poised to upset the tetropoly after 2009, but with his injury that has not materialized. 

The question now is will Djokovic and Murray ever replace the dominant duo?  Djokovic has himself won two slams and seems poised to claim the #1 computer ranking.  If Nadal does not win the tournament Djokovic will be #1.  Even if Nadal does win, Djokovic will be #1 if he makes the final.  Can he beat Federer at Wimbledon?  If he can find his form from early spring he has a very good chance.  Then again this is Federer on grass.

Murray looked very strong at Queen’s and probably has the talent to win the whole shooting match.  Five of the experts listed below have picked him for the title.  But this is Nadal at Wimbledon.  If he makes it to the semis, Nadal will be on a 19 match win streak at the tournament.

Nadal def Murray
Federer def Djokovic

Final

Should we be treated to another Nadal-Federer classic, we would be best to just settle back and enjoy it.  These good times won’t last forever.  Nadal currently holds 3 of the grand slam titles.  He is #1 in the world, and psychologically he manages to muster the self-belief that he is the underdog.  This keeps him hungry.  It has been 6 grand slam tournaments since Federer tasted victory and that will make him hungry.  It promises to be wonderful theatre no matter what the outcome.  Based on current form I side with the bookies over the experts.

Federer def Nadal

Summary of Expert Opinion

10 picks – Nadal – Garber, Tandon, Fernadez (ESPN); Wertheim, Dietsch, Graham, Lawrence, Newman (SI); McGrogan (Tennis); Bowers (Tennisserver)
6 picks – Federer – Ubha, Wilansky, Shriver, Cahill, Drysdale (ESPN); Tignor (Tennis)
5 picks – Murray – McEnroe, Gilbert (ESPN); Price, Jenkins (SI); Pagliaro (Tennis)
1 pick – Djokovic – Hunt (SI)
1 pick – Roddick – Bodo (Tennis)

Average from bookies.com on 19 Jun 2011

1.  Federer  3.05
2.  Nadal  3.29
3.  Djokovic  4.42
4.  Murray  6.36
5.  Del Potro  31.71
6.  Tsonga  41.33
7.  Soderling  44.10
8.  Roddick  45.29
9.  Berdych  47.43
10.  Isner  70.86
11.  Raonic  90.95
12.  Gasquet  100.24
13.  Fish  130.20
14.  Querrey  167.67
15.  Cilic  168.86
16.  Monfils  182.86