Wimbledon 2009 – Men’s Preview - 19 Jun 2009

Wimbledon 2009 – Men’s Preview

19 June 2009

The big question in this year’s draw was supposed to be which side Andy Murray would land in.  Would it be the Rafael Nadal half or the Roger Federer half?  A month ago everyone was speculating which half Novak Djokovic would fall in at the French.  It turned out to be irrelevant because Djokovic lost in the 3R.  The same has happened at Wimbledon once the biggest question turned into, would Nadal play at all?  The shocking answer is no.

The bonfires of speculation had been raging over the state of Nadal’s knees.  He’s long been taping them and his hesitation to commit to playing Madrid, two weeks before Roland Garros, seemed to speak to fear of exhaustion.  Virtually no mention was made of Nadal’s knees at RG after the shocking exit to Robin Soderling in the 4R.  This has led some to speculate that the talk of tendonitis was a ploy by his Uncle Toni – Nadal’s coach – to psych out the opposition or obfuscate the loss.  Legitimate or not, the focus on the knees has perhaps provided Nadal a psychological cushion for dealing with the loss at Roland Garros.  Some speculation has swirled about that Nadal’s confidence may have taken a hit because of the RG loss, but what we have seen of him in the past, does not suggest vulnerability to that kind of mental laxity.  However the withdrawal from Wimbledon seems incontrovertible proof that the knee problem is very real, and the tournament and the fans suffer for the loss.

First Quarter – Nadal-less quarter

With Nadal gone the fortunes of Lleyton Hewitt and Andy Roddick may have taken a major boost.  I expected that Hewitt would give Nadal a real fight in round 2, but with Nadal removed and Juan Martin Del Potro in his place, the way is somewhat easier for  Hewitt to make it through to the QF.  However JMDP may be no less an obstacle for the aging Hewitt. 

JMDP has managed only 2R showings at Wimbledon, but both were before he made his sudden and dramatic rise up the rankings beginning with 4 consecutive hard court titles last summer.  He may be an unknown quantity here, but his form and recent results suggest that he will adapt to the surface.  He very nearly took Federer out of the French, but with less experience on grass he may have another year of learning before challenging for the title.

Possible second round opponent for Roddick is teen sensation, Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov, all of 18.  Dimitrov may very well make waves in the future, but with the current depth of the men’s tour, I expect he needs a couple years experience before storming the wall.

Roddick was seeded to meet Nadal in the quarters and that could have made for a bloody clash that I expected Roddick to win.  Roddick has thriven under new coach Larry Stefanki this year, lost weight and seems fixated on continuing to fight and improve.  Grass favours Roddick’s hard-hitting game.  I do not expect Melzer or Davydenko to provide serious challenges to Roddick on grass.  20^th seeded Berdych could be a bit stiffer, but ultimately Roddick should bomb through.

The matchup with JMDP could be a bit tougher.  Del Potro has impressed by continuing to improve and could challenge Djokovic for the #4 ranking with a good showing at the All England Club. The bottom of his talent is not in sight, but lack of grass court experience may be his undoing.  Expect big things from him in the near future.

Roddick def Del Potro

Second Quarter – the Murray quarter

It’s exhausting just watching the British public heaping expectations on Murray’s young shoulders.  He protests that they rest weightlessly there; whether that is true remains to be seen.  Murray seems well-coached and is surrounded by a large enough entourage that he may be forgiven if he allows himself to feel like only one cog in a machine.  Certainly he and his team have behaved increasingly professionally. Should he lose he may well resort to the safety valve of blaming the pressure of expectations, but I expect that Murray will indeed shed the pressure as the focus of his matches absorbs his attention. 

An inspired Ernests Gulbis could provide trouble for him in the second round.  Also lurking in his section are potential third round opponents Taylor Dent and Viktor Troicki.  Possible fourth rounder dangers include Stanislas Wawrinka or Marat Safin.  But with no niggling physical issues and an apparent hunger to win the big one, Murray should come through safely to the quarterfinals.  There he is seeded to meet the dangerous but inconsistent Gilles Simon.  Simon has not looked like a top 10 player this year, and maybe not even a top 20 one.  Also in this section are Nicolas Kiefer (one QF and one 4R finish) and the surprising grass game of Juan Carlos Ferrero (one QF and two 4R).  More dangerous might be the 10^th seed Fernando Gonzalez.  A former quarter-finalist here, Gonzalez took Murray out of Roland Garros and his huge strokes are well-suited to grass.  It could be close.

Murray def Gonzalez

Third Quarter – the Djokovic quarter

This quarter presents perhaps the biggest openings for the proceedings not to follow seed.  Djokovic looked disjointed in his early campaign this year when he was shuffled out unceremoniously at the Aus Open 3^rd round.  However, he adjusted to the new racket that some blamed for his poor showing, and seemed to blossom in spring with victories in Dubai and Belgrade framing 3 fine consecutive runnerup performances in Masters 1000 tournaments at Miami, Monte Carlo, and Rome.  He then appeared on the verge of defeating Nadal with 3 match points in Madrid, only to see Nadal fight back as Nadal so heart-breakingly does.  That loss seemed to crush Novak’s spirit and his 3R loss at RG was a major surprise.  He showed mental fragility again in his final round loss to an inspired Tommy Haas at Halle.  Haas is talented and no slouch but Djokovic has the game and should have had the will to get that win.  So Djokovic’s game and headspace is very much in question at this point.  He will want to improve on last year’s surprising 2R exit to Marat Safin, and with some luck and a few wins, his confidence could build.  Two years ago, he very nearly beat Nadal in the SF, but he was on the ascendance then.  The loss of the #3 ranking to Murray after holding it for over a year, and being within a win of #2 a number of times, may also be weighing his mind down.  All of this makes him vulnerable.

Mardy Fish, 28^th seed, or the dangerous Janko Tipsarevic are possible 3R opponents for Djokovic.  The 4^th round could bring up last years semifinalist Rainer Schuettler, but don’t expect him to match that performance.

Haas has materialized as the 24^th seed (not the 32^nd, what are the bizarre machinations of the AELTC?) after 14 seed Gael Monfils pulled out, and he is a potential QF opponent for Djokovic.  But in 10 attempts here, Haas has made it to the 4R only once, despite a game that would seem well-suited for the surface.  Eleventh seed Marin Cilic could face Haas in round 3 and either could give Djokovic a lot to think about.

With Del Potro migrating to Nadal’s former place, 17^th seeded James Blake has taken Del Potro’s spot at the top of this section.  Blake is a fine grass court player, though starting to get past his prime.  He may still have enough to get by Haas or Cilic.  It’s really a toss up who will emerge into the QF spot here.

If Djokovic can work his way into form and navigate the minefield of the first 4 rounds, he could be in suitable confidence to move forward.  With the removal of JMDP, his draw his plum.

Djokovic def Blake

Fourth Quarter – the Federer quarter

With his victory at the French, Federer has been widely acclaimed as the favourite for Wimbledon, on the logic that Nadal’s confidence is shaken.  That logic will remain untested.  The question remains however, whether Federer will experience a relaxation of his high standards now that the pressure of an incomplete grand slam resume has been lifted, (a la Mats Wilander getting the #1 monkey of his back post 1988), or contrarily, will he now swing freely and be even more dominant?

A few years ago Federer said he would rather win another Wimbledon than a first French.  That must have gonged ominously for him, but with the beast slain, I expect Federer’s main focus to revert to piling up Wimbledon riches.

Federer’s draw looks reasonably easy – for him.  Kohlschreiber could make life difficult in the 3^rd round and Lopez (two QF, two 4R finishes) and Soderling are dangerous potential 4R opponents.  Soderling may be poised for the typical letdown of the post-GS Cinderella run, but his seemingly fearless big game could also do major damage on the grass – all within Federer’s problem-solving capability.

The biggest threats to make the QF opposite Federer are likely 7^th seed Verdasco, Canada’s Frank Dancevic, or 9^th seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  Of the three, Tsonga is probably the only real threat.  His big-hitting, net-charging, high risk game is perfectly suited for grass, although he has not had the opportunity to showcase it here since his ascendance after the Aus Open runner-up run of 2008.  It could be a very entertaining match with the outcome by no means certain – if Tsonga can first muster the consistency to make it through 4 matches.

Federer def Tsonga

Semifinal 1

Roddick will be underestimated only at great peril.  Murray is not likely to do this, but may very well feel a lot of nerves if he makes it this far to face a beatable opponent (beatable compared to Federer or a healthy Nadal).  Roddick has been this far at Wimbledon thrice before and should not be unduly agitated.  The memory of their dramatic 2^nd rounder here in 2006, won by Murray, could be on both their minds, but the intensity of play should wipe that away and allow it to come down to the tennis.  If Roddick can force the issue he should win, but if Murray can start moving Roddick around it could turn in his favour.  It will be close.

Winner:  Murray

Semifinal 2

If Djokovic can make it this far he will have used up all his lives and it’s unlikely he will feel much comfort on grass in Federer’s living room.

Winner:  Federer

Final

Can anyone but Nadal beat Federer at Wimbledon?  Roddick has had the chance twice and a third isn’t likely to change the script.  Murray’s game is textured enough that he could make it interesting.  But Federer will be playing with house money.  With Nadal gone, Federer can reclaim the #1 ranking if he wins the title.

Champion:  Federer

Here are Friday’s odds for the Wimbledon men’s winner from bookies.com, average of all bookies reporting:

1          1.78     Federer, R

2          3.13     Murray, A

3          11.64   Djokovic, N

4          19.21   Roddick, A

5          20.07   Del Potro, JM

6          21.86   Tsonga, JW

7          49.50   Söderling, R

8          50.93   Verdasco, F

9          59.86   Haas, T

10        88.71   Hewitt, L

11        91.50   González, F

12        108.29 Cilic, M

13        115.43 Karlovic, I

14        117.00 Blake, J

15        151.00 Nieminen, J

16        152.57 Berdych, T

17        163.00 Ancic, M

18        163.92 Davydenko, N

19        200.00 Isner, J

20        200.79 Safin, M

21        221.62 Wawrinka, S

22        229.36 Kohlschreiber, P

23        237.64 Simon, G

24        264.69 Ferrer, D

25        272.00 Lopez, F

26        283.64 Fish, M

27        286.23 Tipsarevic, J

28        293.64 Stepanek, R

29        317.58 Youzhny, M

30        355.08 Ferrero, JC

31        358.64 Gulbis, E

32        359.17 Chardy, J