Roland Garros – Preview - 2009 - Women - 22 May 2009

Roland Garros – Preview - 2009

22 May 2009

Women’s Draw

First quarter

It seems typical of women’s draws at the majors recently to have quarters heavily populated with favourites, and quarters that seem vacuous.  This quarter has at least three possible champions in it.  Many are calling this the most wide open women’s draw at RG in years, possibly decades.  However, one player has slowly been establishing herself as the front-runner for this tournament, and that is the newly-crowned #1, Dinara Safina.  Safina has looked very impressive with her wins in the last two top-level tournaments at Rome and Madrid. She was also runner-up here last year and at the Australian Open in Jan/Feb.  She should sort her way through to the QF without too much difficulty – of course no match is to be taken for granted on the WTA these days and Pavlyuchenkova in 3R could be troublesome.  On the other half of this quarter are the talented Viktoria Azarenka, last year’s champion Ana Ivanovic, and the volatile Carla Suarez Navarro.  CSN has made two QFs in just her first 4 grand slam events, including her first one at last year’s RG.  In the early betting, Azarenka was pretty much everyone’s dark horse pick for this tournament, however she has faltered during the clay court season and is no higher than 8^th with the bookies.  In the bookies’ 7^th spot and holding the #8 seed is Ivanovic.  Ivanovic clearly has talent but has not handled well the pressure of her win here last year or the pressure of the #1 ranking she acquired shortly afterward.  She showed flashes of steadiness during a runner-up run at Indian Wells, but has not looked dependable since.  Azarenka will want to show her collapse in Australia to Serena Williams is not indicative of her mettle, but her poor results on clay by no means make her a lock to get by Suarez Navarro.  Rolling the dice, I pick Ivanovic to make it to the QF.

Safina def Ivanovic.

Second quarter

At first glance this quarter appears to be reasonably stocked with #3 seed Venus Williams, hot in 2009 Vera Zvonareva, former Australian and Wimbledon winner Amelie Mauresmo, #11 seed and perennial top-tenner Nadia Petrova, and the 3-time major champion, Maria Sharapova.  However, the substance is likely much less than the apparition in this case.  Zvonareva has had a spectacular 6 or 7 months, featuring a title at Indian Wells and a runner-up performance at the year-end championships.  However she has been injured the last few months and whether she will even take the court remains in question.  If she does play, it’s likely she will be rusty, nevertheless she cannot be written off completely.  Mauresmo has been surging recently and surprised many with a SF showing in Madrid and a title in Feb.  However she has never done well here and her recent results are unlikely to be sustained.  Petrova had a hiccup of good results early in the year, but seems to be trending more down than up in general.  Sharapova is, of course, massively talented and should never be counted out, however clay seems to be her weakest surface.  After nearly 6 years of never missing a GS event, she has missed the last two because of injury and her form is very much in question for this event.  She has fallen below 100 in the official rankings, having not played since the Canadian last July.  She has only 3 matches under her belt, all from this week, and looked strong in only one of those.  She looks unlikely to be in a good place to make a run here, but with her talent and determination she should never be counted out.  Given her history of winning a new major every even-numbered year (Wim 2004, US 2006, Aus 2008) she isn’t ‘scheduled’ to do well here till next year.  That leaves only Venus Williams.  Venus had a very nice result in Rome, making the SF, but lost what looked like easy ones in Charleston and Madrid.  She is currently defending 5 titles including the YEC and Wimbledon.  Considering her run in Rome she looks most likely to make a run in this quarter.  There are some other interesting floaters in this quarter like Lisicki, Szavay and ABondarenko, but these are unlikely to sustain much pace.  I’m tempted to predict no one will win this quarter, and it may well come down to a default victory of sorts.

VWilliams def Sharapova

Third quarter

The apparent favourites in this quarter are the 4^th and 5^th seeds Elena Dementieva and Jelena Jankovic, respectively.  Dementieva started the year positively afire with back to back tournament victories and a SF at the Australian, but has only smouldered since.  She has looked particularly mediocre in the clay court season with her best being two middling results at Charleston and Stuttgart.  She looked especially weak last week in Madrid where she won only one match.  Jankovic started the year very poorly squandering the #1 ranking and falling all the way to #5.  She looks plum to go further down should she perform below her SF here last year.  However the excessive strength-training that has been blamed for this plummet seems to be losing its effect and she has been steadily improving during the clay season, posting a title at Marbella and QFs at Rome and Madrid.  The other possibly major factor in this quarter is the presence of Caroline Wozniacki.  Wozniacki is defending no less than 4 titles and had an impressive performance in finishing runner-up in Madrid—albeit without beating a top 10 opponent.  Wozniacki and Jankovic could stage an entertaining battle in the 4R, but I expect Jankovic to have the edge based on her improving form and greater experience against top opponents and in big events.  Who the winner of that match might face seems an almost random guess, so by default,

Jankovic def Dementieva

Fourth quarter

Serena Williams is something of a bookie’s nightmare.  She has looked totally out of sorts heading into RG with her last 4 matches charted as 4 straight losses and not a single win on clay.  However it is perfectly conceivable that the 2002 champion could walk away at the end of this event with another title.  She loves big events and she relishes the fight.  But will she get fired up in time to get the herd charging to victory or will she go out in the first round to Zakopalova?  Opposite her in this half of this quarter is Pennetta who made 4R here last year.  At the top of the quarter is Svetlana Kuznetsova who had seemed mired ever deeper in self-doubt.  After remaining titleless for two years, Kuznetsova stunned everyone, including herself it seems, with back to back final performances in Stuttgart and Rome, titling in Stuttgart, only to fall in the 1R of Madrid.  Schnyder and A Radwanska are also in her section and could both easily make it to the QF.  Schnyder is perennially strong on clay with a SF last week in Madrid and no less than seven 4R or better performances here, including the last 4 consecutive years and a QF last year.  But Kuznetsova has lots of talent and with a little momentum carrying over from the last several weeks, should be able to scrap through.

Kuznetsova def Pennetta

SF 1

Safina has looked determined and uncompromising since gaining the #1 ranking.  Venus has looked inconsistent.  No doubt that Venus has talent, but Safina does too and seems to favour clay much more than Venus.  Both women are former finalists here, but Safina looks to have a lot more desire right now, especially on clay.

Safina def VWilliams

SF 2

Will Jankovic finally realize the promise of the #1 ranking she held last year and triumph on the big stage?  Had her form not looked so questionable for the first half of this year, I would think her chance to make the final quite good, but against the talented Kuznetsova and facing the pressure of her own expectations I expect her to come up short.  Kuznetsova, on the other hand, probably won’t start feeling the pressure until the final.

Kuznetsova def Jankovic

Final

If these two make it this far, it would be the third time Safina and Kuznetsova face each other in a final this clay court season, with one win apiece going in.  At first blush I would favour neither of these women to play for my life in a major final, the way you might put your stake on Serena Williams.  Kuznetsova has one major under her belt, the US in 2004, but she was young then and has looked unreliable ever since.  Safina has already played and lost two major finals.  I don’t think a woman has ever won a first GS title while seeded #1.  Could Safina be the first?  She’s the bookies’ favourite and mine too.

Safina def Kuznetsova

Here are the odds from bookies.com for the RG women’s winner from 20 May – average of all bookies reporting:

1	Safina, D	4.74
2	Jankovic, J	7.75
3	Kuznetsova, S	8.02
4	Williams, S	8.22
5	Dementieva, E	11.29
6	Williams, V	12.29
7	Ivanovic, A	12.41
8	Azarenka, V	13.35
9	Zvonareva, V	18.82
10	Wozniacki, C	19.29
11	Sharapova, M	24.38
12	Mauresmo, A	30.35
13	Lisicki, S	35.59
14	Radwanska, A	53.38
15	Pennetta, F	68.69
16	Suarez Navarro, C	70.38
17	Petrova, N	79.18
18	Cornet, A	79.71
19	Li, Na	82.20
20	Cibulková, D	86.67
21	Bartoli, M	91.57
22	Chakvetadze, A	93.07
23	Szávay, Á	94.00
24	Vaidišová, N	96.92
25	Schnyder, P	98.69
26	Bondarenko, A	109.27
27	Schiavone, F	121.00