US Open 2009 – Women’s Preview – Thu 27 Aug 2009

US Open 2009 – Women’s Preview – Thu 27 Aug 2009

While it is popular to talk about the lack of dominance at the top of the women’s game as a problem, this makes for the most interesting of times.  Who will win this edition of the US Open is a wide open question.  Serena Williams seems to be a cut above when she wants to be – which is mostly at the Slams – but she looks so vulnerable for so much of the rest of the year that nothing can be taken for granted.

We are awash in potential winners this year:  Serena, Venus, world #1 Safina, a resurgent Jankovic, a recovering Sharapova, the return of Kim Clijsters, and Elena Dementieva – arguably the hottest player of the summer.  These seven are the most obvious favourites, but also in the mix are French champ Kuznetsova, youngsters Azarenka and Wozniacki, not to mention Zvonareva and Ivanovic both of whom have the talent to win it all.  There are a few other longshots, but the winner is likely to come from this dozen, with the two favourites likely to be Serena and Dementieva.

First Quarter

Somehow, by hook or by crook, Dinara Safina has managed to hold onto the #1 ranking longer than any other woman since the stunning disappearance of Justine Henin.  When the curtain opens on this year’s US Open she will have been in the top spot 20 weeks, more than twice as long as the 9 weeks managed by brother Marat.  Despite a strong first half year, she has looked patchy this summer hardcourt season.  She actually looked stronger last year at this time and her repeated meltdowns in big finals make her look increasingly unlikely as the US champion.

Ivanovic and Jankovic are slated for a 4R meeting if seed holds, and her win in Cincinnati and QF in Toronto indicate Jankovic is in good form.  She should make it by Ivanovic if Ana can make it that far, and, based on better form, by Safina as well.

Semi-finalist – Jankovic def Safina

Second Quarter

With wins over Serena and Sharapova in Toronto and a SF in Cincinnati, Dementieva appears to be in strong contention to finally claim a major title.  She is in perhaps the jinxed position of being many observers’ favourite… just ask Safina at this year’s French.  Dementieva has tended not to do well when she is expected to and she has a difficult road ahead of her, starting with Sharapova in 3R.  Any sensible tournament director would seed Sharapova in the top 8, but the transparency required by the WTA requires that the computer be followed and so Sharapova is only #29 after missing most of the first half of the year.  Based on current form, Dementieva should have a slight edge, but Sharapova’s fighting spirit is not easily discounted.

In the other half of this quarter Wozniacki and Kuznetsova are the highest seeds.  Neither has had a strong summer and Kuzzie has looked really disinterested since her French triumph.  Sorana Cirstea could be a spoiler here.

The 1R match between Oudin and Pavlyuchenkova could have been a junior matchup and is an interesting one that may showcase two future stars.

Semi-finalist – Dementieva def Wozniacki

Third Quarter

With Serena in the same half, will Venus Williams muster her best game and seek to challenge her sister in the semifinal? Maybe even give herself a shot at another major somewhere other than Wimbledon?  She has looked off since her losses in the Stanford and Wimbledon finals.  This may well be irrelevant, since like her sister she thrives on the big occasion.

Azarenka has not looked comfortable on hard courts this summer and may need to learn to manage her emotions before making a serious title run at a major.  She could face a difficult challenge in Agnieska Radwanska, seeded to meet her in 4R and who boasts a win over Sharapova at this event.

The big question in this quarter is wildcard Kim Clijsters.  Clijsters has looked strong in her two tournament debut beating a number of top 20 players, but lost when she faced top five players Safina and Jankovic.  Can she do better at the US Open?  She could meet Venus in 4R and predicting that match is tough.  My head tells me Venus but my gut says Clijsters.

Semi-finalist – Venus def Radwanska

Fourth Quarter

Without a non-slam title since spring 2008, Serena Williams looks poised to make a decent run at defending her US title.  This inverse logic would apply to no other player (perhaps Venus?), but Serena has shown time and time again that poor form beforehand is no indication of how she will thrive on the big stage.  Zvonareva is the next highest seed in this quarter but hasn’t put together two match wins in a row since Wimbledon.  Bammer, Stosur, and Pennetta are also in this quarter and have all been hot this summer, but none can withstand the onslaught of an in-form Serena.

Semi-finalist – Serena def Pennetta

First Semi-final

Jankovic has been rounding into form nicely since her early season slump blamed on over-training cost her the #1 ranking.  However Dementieva must know she won’t have many more chances – she’s 28 this year, in great form, and looks hungrier than Jankovic.

Dementieva def Jankovic

Second Semi-final

Despite being a superb athlete with a frightening reach, tremendous power, and a huge desire to win, Venus seems to be playing second fiddle to little sis these days who just seems to want it more.

Serena def Venus

Final

Will Serena match Billie Jean’s (or is that BJK?) 12 GS singles titles?  Dementieva has twice been victimized in GS finals and her will to win will be intense.  Dementieva had and lost a match point on Serena at Wimbledon but exacted some measure of revenge with her win in Toronto.  Does that mean it’s Serena’s turn?  Wimbledon’s grass likely favours Serena’s game more than hard court, Dementieva’s best surface.  That may be enough to give Dementieva the edge, but when the crunch comes, can Dementieva close out the match, even if she’s well ahead?  She has shown repeated collapses on big occasions in the past and the pressure only increases with age.  Tragically I expect the same again if she plays a player of Serena’s caliber.  Dementieva should be praying for Safina to make the final opposite her.

Serena def Dementieva

Here are the odds for US Open women’s champion as of Thu 27 Aug 2009 from Betfair

1          SWilliams        3.15

2          VWilliams       6.8

3          Dementieva     9.6

4          Safina  14.5

5          Sharapova       14.5

6          Azarenka         17

7          Clijsters           17.5

8          Jankovic          18

9          Kuznetsova     26

10        Wozniacki       42

11        Ivanovic          70

12        Stosur  70

13        Pennetta          75

14        Zvonareva       85

15        Bartoli 95

16        Lisicki 120

17        Mauresmo       220

18        Cirstea 250

19        Li         260

20        ARadwanska  300

21        Vesnina           300

22        Petrova            370

23        Dokic  380

24        Chakvetadze   400

25        Razzano          410

26        Hantuchova     430

27        Safarova          460

28        Szavay 470

29        Bacsinszky      500

30        Czink   500

31        Hradecka         500

32        KBondarenko 500