2010 Year End and 2011 Preview – Men’s Tennis
What more can be said about the stellar ascendance of Rafael Nadal? The first Fre-Wim-US triple in men’s tennis since Rod Laver speaks for itself. A rise to the top for Juan Martin Del Potro did not materialize as I predicted at the end of 2009. Delpo was injured and won only 3 matches – at the Australian Open. Despite a slow start that saw nearly a year pass since his last title, Rafael Nadal obliterated the competition in claiming the year’s four biggest clay court titles consecutively and the year’s last three Slam titles. Can he do it again in 2011?
Rafael Nadal
With only a quarter showing in Australia and semis at Indian Wells and Miami, Rafa looked to be off to a much slower start than 2009 when he won two of those titles. But his dominance of the four month pith of the season winning 6 of the 8 biggest titles from Monte Carlo to New York, made his lead in the yearend race unassailable and assured him not only of #1 for the year, but of status as one of the top performers of all time. He has already garnered 9 grand slam titles placing him 7th on the all-time list and is only the 7th man to complete the career slam. His GS singles title haul so far is bested only by Borg who had 10 at the same age.
It would seem foolish to pick against Rafa at Roland Garros 2011. His 2010 performance amounted to a comeback and his form since on his non-favourite surfaces is a probable indicator that he will be unstoppable at the French on his favourite surface.
If he can maintain the hard court brilliance he showed in New York, he should be able to claw his way to another Australian Open as well. His dominating performance at Wimbledon this year might not be enough in 2011 if he meets a very on-form Federer, but bookies’ odds will doubtless be with Nadal. Although he dropped only one set in this year’s US Open, his dependence on the serve could prompt questions about his confidence and ability if that stroke is less stellar in 2011. With the USO monkey off his back, however, Nadal could very well triumph again on New York hardcourts.
In short, the calendar year grand slam is within reach for Nadal, and at very least he is only one tournament from completing the non-calendar slam in Australia – a feat Federer never pulled off. If Rafa can do that, debate about his GOAT status is sure to gain momentum.
I think it probable that Nadal will win 3 slam titles next year and finish the year again at #1. Whether he does or not, in the year in which he turns 25 and in a career that has paralleled Borg’s in so many ways, talk of Nadal’s decline is sure to surface. As unthinkable as that may sound, if Nadal can win the Australian and French majors he will equal Borg’s haul of 11 majors at the same age (ok, Rafa will be 3 days older), and that was Borg’s last major win. By 25, both McEnroe and Wilander had won their last majors. Even the last of Federer’s consecutive finishes at yearend #1 came at just 26, before Nadal assumed the mantle in 2008. It may be entirely unjustified, but with Federer safely consigned to “doddering”, Nadal will be the next target of the age-mongering.
However, I think Nadal has at least two more good years in him, possibly more. With his knee seemingly balanced by foot othotics, this is one pony I’m not betting against.
Roger Federer
Although reports of his decline are no longer laughable, Roger is still clearly in the top two. Roger started the year with a bang by winning a record 16th grand slam singles title at the Australian Open. With Rafa floundering until the clay season, Del Potro out with an injury, and Murray and Djokovic lost in the shuffle, it appeared 2010 could become another 3-slam year for the Express and psalms to his GOAT-hood would both multiply and be justified. But quarters in the French and Wimbledon silenced his heralds and a semi showing at the USO underlined that his best is behind him. Nevertheless he rallied for the yearend swing winning 3 tournaments after USO including a dominating performance in the World Tour Finals.
Federer is still too good to ever be counted out of contention for any slam he plays, but it will take Herculean concentration for him to hoist the big hardware again. Sampras managed to rise from the ashes one last time and vanquish the doubters with his 2002 US Open win. I’m hoping Federer will find inspiration for a last great hurrah as well. I’m not convinced it will happen in 2011 – maybe 2012.
If he does manage to hoist #17 in 2011 he will become the first man to win at least one GS title in 9 consecutive years. He currently shares the record of 8 with two indubitable talents named Borg and Sampras. Soon threatening that record, however, may be a Spaniard named Nadal who will increase his tally to 7 if he wins one in 2011.
I’d thought that Murray and Djokovic would eventually overtake Federer the way Nadal has, but instead have come to the conclusion that Federer is and will always be just a little bit better than they are. I’d give Federer just better than 50:50 odds to add another slam title this year. 2011 will show us how hungry Roger still is. He’s going to be very close to the top. Will it be enough?
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic may have the most difficult time in history to play pro tennis. Next to the ridiculous talents of Federer and Nadal, nearly everyone looks pedestrian. So far he has run up against Fedal 11 times at slam events, winning only twice from Federer. Will he finally get an opening in 2011?
Djokovic’s win over Federer 5-7 in the 5th at the US Open was hardly a trouncing, but it should give Novak some quarter for optimism. On the other hand, Nadal is coming off his best ever year in 2010 and even if he doesn’t improve further (by no means certain), the room for anyone else to rise to the top of any major tournament will be hard-scrabbled, to say the least. The fact that Djokovic even got to the USO final seems like a victory. Will he be content there? His 0-5 record against Nadal in majors will hardly be heartening for Djokovic.
Djokovic’s best shots at glory in 2011 will likely come at the hard-court slams. Perhaps he will derail Nadal’s march to the non-calendar slam in Australia. Not that I would bet on it. Novak is amazingly smooth and talented. He’s about to hit his two peak years. If he’s going to rise to the top, now is the time.
Still, it’s hard not to think of 2010 has an improvement for Djokovic and I give him nearly 50-50 odds of winning a major in 2011.
Andy Murray
Murray’s was a year of highs and lows. His runner up performance in Melbourne seemed to signal that 2010 would finally be his break-through year at the slams, but it was not to be. He seemed to shatter after crying publicly at the trophy presentation and didn’t post another good run until making the semis at Wimbledon.
He got everyone’s attention by beating Federer at Toronto in the lead up to the US Open and was picked by several experts as favourite for the Open. But although his opponent made an inspired run to the eventual quarterfinals, his third round loss to Wawrinka was deemed by nearly everyone as an implosion of career-threatening magnitude.
Despite ballistic ball-striking ability, Murray may not have the head for the grand slam chess game and may well go down in history as the greatest player never to win a major. He currently sports the best win-loss match record at the majors in the open era among all players who have never won one (at least 5 majors played).
Nonetheless, although the odds are increasingly against him, I give Murray about a 25% chance at vindication by winning a major within the next two years. His two best years are probably ahead of him.
Juan Martin Del Potro
Del Potro is the big question mark of 2011. After his eye-popping US Open victory of 2009, mincing both Nadal and Federer, I predicted JMDP would soon rise to #1 and have many more GS titles in his future. That trajectory is now certainly in doubt.
Many players have had sophomore lapses, but none of the top talents (say 6 or more slam titles) have entirely missed the next year after initial grand slam success. Whether Del Potro can return to the top form is completely unknown. On the one hand, he’s young enough to shake it all off and re-find his confidence and strokes. On the other hand, Nadal and Djokovic have had another year to toughen in the pro crucible.
Del Potro could easily rest on the laurels of his slam win and on the psychological crutch of his career-interrupting injury and never again challenge the citadel. He may have lost his mojo – Sharapova-like – to injury. If he does rise again, it will toll favourably of his character and will ring ominously for his opponents. His talent, size, and power are not to be underestimated.
He’ll need some warm-up time. I can’t see him threatening at a slam before US Open 2011 and realistically, it will likely take till 2012.
Robin Soderling
The five players mentioned above are the current stars of men’s tennis – the ones who seem like legitimate contenders for the major trophies. When we get to Robin Soderling, the word “journeyman” springs to mind, or maybe “second tier.” So it is sobering to remember that Soderling has already featured in two grand slam finals and is the only man ever to beat Nadal at Roland Garros.
What can be expected for Soderling in 2011?
He definitely improved on his 2009 finish of #8, but for this calibre of player the only way to really improve, aside from continuing to win gobs of money every year, is to claim that elusive grand slam title. There won’t be too much else left on his tennis-to-do list.
Unfortunately, Robin will be turning 27 in 2011 and is likely to find it more difficult rather than easier to win matches. Remembering that the peak years of Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and Del Potro will be occurring in the next two or so years, the picture looks grim for Robin (and anyone else!)
Given his continued opportunity to assuage himself with the aforesaid gobs of money, I won’t be rushing to console Soderling, but if it’s not already passed, 2011 may be his last good shot at Major glory.
The Best of the Rest
Thomas Berdych was truly impressive in making the semis at the French and finals at Miami and Wimbledon. At other times one wonders where his talent is hiding. Already 25, his time to become a top 5 player has nearly expired. Chances that he will ever win a slam are long to nil. Hopefully he can stay in the top 10 for 2011.
Marin Cilic began the year full of promise with two tournament victories, a defeat of Murray, and a semi in Australia. But he’s floundering the way Berdych did at the same age. Let’s hope he can resurrect his talent for more deep slam runs and position himself for even greater heights. However all things considered, it’s doubtful he will ever match countryman Ivanisevic’s best accomplishments.
Nikolay Davydenko has not found his best form after an injury sidelined him in April. It’s a shame because he won last year’s yearend championships and finally beat Federer in January. Chances are he will rise again to claim some lucrative but meaningless titles, however odds of ever again making even a semifinal run at the slams are decidedly remote. I hope to see him back in form and striking clean balls in 2011.
Andy Roddick looked sharp in spring with victories in Brisbane and Miami, but after 2009’s spectacular Wimbledon final he looked old in losing in the round of 16 and only managed to make 2R at USO. He looks weary and in a year in which he will turn 29, it’s all but certain the highs of 2003’s US title will never again be equalled. Extending his streak of winning at least one tournament per year could well reach eleven.
Fernando Verdasco, Mikhail Youzhny, and David Ferrer, have shown they still have enough ability to lurk near the top ten and nip at the heels of the elite. Not much more will be expected so let’s enjoy them while we can.
Marcos Baghdatis and Gael Monfils will always be outside threats to pull major upsets, but they do not likely have a real chance at slam glory the way Jo-Wilfried Tsonga might. Though age is increasingly against him, Tsonga may not yet have reached his peak and he is original enough and deep enough that predicting him is perilous.
David Nalbandian’s chance at the top, and it was real, has come and gone. Ditto Fernando Gonzalez and Richard Gasquet.
The young American talents, Isner and Querrey, may continue to improve and could even reach the top ten one day, although greater expectation for them is probably unreasonable. Mardy Fish may post another upset or two before his career winds down.
Looking to the future, Thiemo de Bakker is a talent touted as still in the raw. But at 22 his hand should already have shown grand slam potential if it were in his cards. Still, he’s one to watch.
Perhaps Ryan Harrison, Bernard Tomic, or Grigor Dmitrov are the best prospects for future potential. Or maybe the next Nadal or Federer is already lurking deep in the ATP rankings, unknown. Although I do not foresee that one will surface in 2011, one never knows when a Becker or Wilander or Chang will explode from nowhere into the tennis galaxy. In my search for the best tennis of 2011 I’ll be keeping my dial tuned to the same old Nadal-Federer show.
2011 GS Predictions (top 6 in order)
Aus Open – Nadal 2-1, Federer 3-1, Djokovic 5-1, Murray 8-1, Soderling 20-1, Del Potro 25-1
Fre Open – Nadal 1.2-1, Federer 4-1, Soderling 5-1, Djokovic 10-1, Del Potro 15-1, Berdych 25-1
Wim – Nadal 2.5-1, Federer 3-1, Murray 6-1, Djokovic 15-1, Roddick 20-1, Berdych 25-1
US Open – Nadal 3-1, Federer 3.5-1, Djokovic 5-1, Murray 8-1, Del Potro 10-1, Soderling 25-1
2011 Yearend Top 10 Prediction
1 Nadal
2 Federer
3 Djokovic
4 Murray
5 Del Potro
6 Soderling
7 Berdych
8 Cilic
9 Tsonga
10 Monfils
Comments
Post a Comment