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Miami 2011 – Men Preview - 22 Mar 2011

Miami 2011 – Men Preview
Last year we were surprised to see Roddick beating Berdych in the final – at least I was.  A lot of upsets had to happen to make that a reality, and it would be even more surprising this year given the form of the top 5 – and my top 5 doesn’t include Soderling…  I think this draw is interesting enough to analyze by eighths, so here goes.

1/8
After the Indian Wells draw came out, there was a great hew and cry among Federer fans that Nadal had an easy draw.  This turned out to not really be the case as he was sorely tested by Devvarman, Karlovic, and Del Potro on his way to a final he didn’t win.  Only the willfully obtuse will claim Nadal’s draw is easy this time around.  He could face explosive young guns Nishikori and Berankis in his first two matches, followed by the vastly talented Dolgopolov or Tsonga.  Should he survive to the quarters he could be in danger against Berdych or (again) Karlovic.  THEN the heavy lifting begins with Federer in his half and the prospect of having to take down Mr. Teflon-2011, Djokovic, in the final.  Not an easy match among the lot.  Of course that could change – favourites often lose and that could very well apply to Nadal.
Winner: Nadal

2/8
If Karlovic continues his fine form of last week he should be able to mow Montanes in the 2nd round despite AM’s hot streak at IW, ditto to Almagro, seeded 11 here.  I expect Karlovic to lose his high bouncing advantage to the 6’5 Berdych who has a much bigger arsenal than just a serve.
Winner: Berdych

3/8
Aside from the potential SF with Nadal, Federer’s draw looks relatively manageable.  He has struggled with Stepanek, Baghdatis, and Youzhny in the past, but none of their form has looked threatening this year and Federer’s has.  It’s pretty much a free pass, although I hold out a niggle for Youzhny.
Winner:  Federer

4/8
There are a bunch of talented second tier and potentially troublesome players here, but overall this looks like the weakest eighth of the draw.  Melzer, Tipsarevic, Cilic, Simon, Ryan Harrison, and Roddick could battle on relatively even terms for a quarter final spot, even Petzschner can be testy.  Normally I would give a slight edge to Roddick, but he has not looked sharp this year.
Winner: Melzer

5/8
The top half of what is probably the toughest quarter of the draw is anyone’s guess, with AO semifinalist Ferrer, a surging Devvarman, hot-breaking Raonic, talented veterans Llodra and Malisse, and Wawrinka to round out the asp’s nest.  If Ferrer can play close to his level in Australia, he should provide a lesson in the efficacy of fast feet to Raonic in round 3.   Likely to meet him in R4 is Wawrinka – and that match is a toss-up in my books
Winner: Ferrer

6/8
This is an absolutely brutal, venomous eighth dripping with Soderling, Del Potro, Kohlschreiber, Gasquet, Fish, and Ljubicic.  Kohlschreiber and Del Potro are potential 2nd round opponents, with the winner likely to face Soderling in R3.  The bruised survivor of that encounter will likely take the quarter, although given his recent form, Gasquet as a potential 4Rer is not easily discounted.
Winner:  Del Potro

7/8
Murray, Isner, Davydenko, and Verdasco are scary looking names in the draw, but given their abysmal losses in IW, the probability of Andreev or Tomic earning a QF berth rises.
Winner:  Murray – at some point the bleeding has to stop... right…??

8/8
Querrey looked strong last week until he collapsed against Robredo.  Robredo?!?  Troicki also has been looking good this year but seems totally psyched by countryman, Djokovic.  Is there any question really?
Winner: Djokovic
Quarters
1/4
Given the difficulties of Nadal’s draw and the fatigue the poor fragile thing must be experiencing after singles and dubs at IW, I’m tempted to predict a loss to Dolgopolov or Berdych.  But really Nadal is too solid and his opponents to head-casey (hey, if Randy Jackson can say “screamy” why not?) to pick against Djokovic’s GOAT.
Nadal def Berdcyh

2/4
Talk about an easy draw…
Federer def Melzer

3/4
Am I really going to predict the same four semi-finalists as last week.  There’s just NO way that can happen…
Del Potro def Ferrer

4/4
Last year a quarter featuring Djokovic and Murray would have seemed unaccountably vicious – at very least “loaded”.  But this year, at this time, one wonders if Djokovic will even break a sweat.  Depends on which version of petulant shows up across the net.  Will Murray be merely sulky (and able to focus) or will the wound-licking woe-is-me infant appear?
Djokovic def Murray

Semis
1/2
With the murderous draw Nadal is facing, I really want to pick a pissy I-am-not-number-3 Federer for the final.
Nadal def Federer – but I can’t…

2/2
Djokovic’s platinum glide has to end some time and an explosive player like Del Potro could hit anyone off the court.  Despite promising results in IW it looks like The Ent still has some dead leaves to shake out of the branches.  In Miami, will Djokovic’s lungs continue to function in all that humid hot air coming from his head?
Djokovic def Del Potro

Final
Not only the same semi-finalists as Indian Wells, but the same finalists, and the same winner...  It simply canNOT happen, but I’m far too lacking in creativity to see it any other way.
Djokovic def Nadal
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