Roland Garros 2011 – Women’s Preview – 21 May 2011

Roland Garros 2011 – Women’s Preview – 21 May 2011

I keep reading this is the most wide open women’s French Open in years – at least, it’s comparable to last year’s tournament when Francesca Schiavone came out of nowhere to surprise Samantha Stosur in the final, winners in the semis over Elena Dementieva and Jelena Jankovic – that was pretty wide open, too.  Neither Williams sister will play but neither has been in a final here since 2002 so will their absence make that much difference?  Can Schiavone do it again?  Will Stosur get another crack at the top?  Or will bookies’ favourite Victoria Azarenka finally prevail on the big stage?  Will Caroline Wozniacki get the slamless #1 monkey off her back?  The French seems the most likely tournament to produce a first time slam winner (4 of the 8 first time winners in the last 10 years).  Will it do it again or will the ever-so-tight slam club remain closed to the uninitiated?

First Quarter

Wozniacki is the #1 seed and justifiably so.  She has won a stunning 9 titles in the last 12 months.  The last person to accomplish this was Justine Henin in 2007.  But unlike Henin, Wozniacki has not proven herself on the slam stage.  Many are saying it’s just a matter of time.  But is it?  It certainly seems to be an era of parity on the WTA tour these days.  It seems anyone could win and the bookies have 10 contenders with better than 25:1 odds.  This is unheard of in my memory.  But does Wozniacki really have enough game to rise to the top in the biggest of tournaments?  Her 5 consecutive tournament victories in the WTA’s top 9 Premier tournaments suggest she does, but her 10W-17L record against active slam winners hint that she will always struggle at the very top.  Nevertheless, in her quarter she must be considered a favourite. 

Svetlana Kuznetsova looms as a potential 4R opponent, but Kuznetsova has been so inconsistent this year, it’s likely that showdown will not happen.  Still Kuznetsova won this tournament only two years ago and should never be counted out.

In the bottom half of this quarter are Marion Bartoli (11^th seed), the surging Julia Goerges (17) and last year’s finalist, Stosur (8).  Bartoli seems to do better on grass and hardcourt than clay so I’d expect a Goerges-Stosur 4R match.  Goerges beat Wozniacki twice on clay this spring, Stosur once, as well as a red-hot Azarenka.  Stosur is certainly capable of extracting revenge but if the match garners attention, Stosur may allow nerves into play and return to the sub-optimal play we saw from her in last year’s final.  I expect Wozniacki to be hungry.

Wozniacki d Goerges

Second Quarter

Vera Zvonareva headlines this quarter as the #3 seed.  She has gone finalist-finalist-semi in her last three slam events and would seem an obvious pick to go deep again.   She’s had a decent year.  The highlights have been a title in Doha and a semi at Miami, with no really bad losses.  But she hasn’t looked very strong either, especially on clay with a 5W-3L record this year.  However, she’s shown she can rise to the big occasion and no one will relish facing her.  She could meet Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (14) in 4R.

The other half of this quarter houses Jankovic (10) and the incumbent Schiavone (4).  Jankovic is a middling 24W-11L for the year and Schiavone has a less impressive 14W-11L.  Given their innate ability on clay and the wild-west milieu of this year’s WTA, neither should be counted out, but based on current form neither looks like they will mount a serious challenge for the title.  In short, this is probably the weakest quarter of the draw, but one from which a semi-finalist must nonetheless arise.  Other possibilities include the mercurial Nadia Petrova (26) and Shuai Peng(29) who seems to be having a career year.

I suspect Schiavone may feel reinvigorated in the Paris spring and that Zvonareva may have too many weapons for the rest of this section.

Zvonareva d Schiavone

Third Quarter

The bottom half of the draw is where it gets really interesting.  Most of the favourites, as I see them, are here and it should make for some good battles.  The top seed in this quarter and overall bookies’ favourite for the title is Azarenka (4).  Three months ago such odds would have seemed unjustified.  But Azarenka gave notice by storming to titles in Miami and Marbella back to back and then made the final in Madrid.  Her big hitting game can take down anyone and unlike Wozniacki she has wins over Serena Williams and Kim Clijsters.  However, she’s never made the semis at a slam, can she really go all the way?

A potential 4R opponent for Azarenka is Ivanovic (20), champion here just 3 years ago.  Ivanovic has the ability and the game to pull it together and title here again, but I strongly doubt her head will let her – she seems too overburdened by meaning to relax and let the tennis flow.

The other half of this quarter features Na Li (6) and the terrifying Petra Kvitova (9).  Li’s runner-up in Australia shows she has abundant talent, but she has never gone farther than 4R at the French.  However she demonstrated surprising clay chops by making the semis at both Madrd and Rome this spring.  Suddenly she’s in the equation. 

Her potential 4R opponent is the extremely talented Kvitova.  Following up last year’s SF at Wimbledon, Kvitova sprang from the blocks with two titles in the first 6 weeks of the year.  She then troughed badly (1W 4L) before decimating the field in Madrid, polishing off Li and Azarenka in her last two matches without the loss of a set.  She’s far from reliable but she’s seems capable of anything.

I believe the most likely match to decide the quarter will be between Kvitova and Azarenka.  Both are talented, young, hard-hitting, and due for a big breakthrough.  Based on a whisker more consistency this year I give the edge to Azarenka.

Azarenka d Kvitova.

Fourth Quarter

If the third quarter features promise, the last features proof.  The highest two seeds here are proven champions Sharapova (7) and Clijsters (2).  They own 7 slam titles between them and both are favourites here despite never having won this title.  After 6 weeks off nursing an ankle injury, Clijsters has to be a little rusty, right?  But is Clijsters ever rusty?  Last year she won the yearend championship after not playing for 10 weeks, and of course there’s her US Open victory after a two and a half year layoff.  She’s dangerous, never count her out.  Plus she’s said she wants this title.  She’s won the the last two slam events and may be the “real #1” of the last 12 months.  A title here would cement that view.

Sharapova has admitted clay is her worst surface, but she has done everything to disprove that this year, mustering a 7W 1L record this spring, the title in Rome, and a return to the top 10.  She may in fact be the favourite in Paris and both Mary Jo Fernandez and Pam Shriver have picked her for the title.        A showdown between Clijsters and Sharapova in the QF is indeed tantalizing and may be worthy of the title match.

But there is a potential spoiler in this section named Andrea Petkovic (15).  After failing to ever advance past the 2R of a slam, Petkovic made 4R at last year’s US Open and QF at the Australian this year.  She’s also registered victories over Jankovic, Wozniacki, and Sharapova in 2011, is 11W 3L on clay for the year, and claimed the title in Strasbourg this week.  She could well provide a severe test for Clijsters in 4R.

Regardless of the winner of that potential matchup, if Sharapova can continue the form she showed in Rome, she will likely be favoured for the quarter.

Sharapova d Clijsters

Semis

This could well be a Goerges-Petrova match, but if things have gone close to my predictions, I think Wozniacki is most likely to emerge the finalist from the top half.  I’m favouring experience over potential  in the bottom half and I think when it comes to the pressure moment, the experienced hand will be steadier.

Wozniacki d Zvonareva

Sharapova d Azarenka

Final

A first slam title or a chance to complete the 4-slam set?

Sharapova d Wozniacki

Average odds from bookies.com on 21 May 2011

1.        Azarenka  5.93

2.       Wozniacki  6.46

3.       Sharapova  7.34

4.       Clijsters  10.94

5.       Kvitova  11.06

6.       Zvonareva  11.19

7.       Stosur  12.25

8.       Goerges  16.69

9.       Schiavone  21.22

10.   Jankovic  23.72

11.   Li  27.72

12.   Kuznetsova  32.65

13.   Petkovic  32.82

14.   Ivanovic  38.71

15.   Pavlyuchenkova  50.13

Summary of Journalists’s choices:

6 Clijsters (Garber - ESPN, Tandon - ESPN, Ubha - ESPN, Drysdale - ESPN, Pagliaro - TENNIS, Tignor - TENNIS)
5 Sharapova (Fernandez - ESPN, Shriver - ESPN, Price - SI, Hunt - SI, Jenkins - SI)
4 Wozniacki (PMcEnroe - ESPN, Gilbert - ESPN, Deitsch - ESPN, Bodo - TENNIS)
3 Kvitova (Wilansky - ESPN, Lawrence - SI, Bowers - tennisserver)
2 Azarenka (Wertheim - SI, McGrogan - TENNIS)
1 Schiavone (Graham - SI)