GOAT thots & the yearend #1 index - 2 Mar 2011

Yearend #1 Index

Statistically, the closest we can probably come to objectivity in the goat debate is in determining how dominant a player was over his contemporaries.

It's pretty much impossible to compare across eras.  Clearly Pancho Gonzalez did not make his name winning GS titles - but he did dominate the other pros (the best in the world at the time) for about 8-10 years.  Can we describe his dominance by some metric that can be compared to other generations?

Compare that to Federer.  He dominated his opposition too (not on clay) for about 5 years.  Does Gonzalez's longer dominance over the best of his era mean he was better?  No (possibly), and for possibly two reasons:  1. perhaps Federer was more dominant over his competition (maybe Fed was 1.8 times better than his competition and Gonzalez was 1.6 times better - ridiculous impossible numbers to know), 2. Federer very likely faces much stiffer, much deeper competition.

Gonzalez was a very big fish in a small pool.  Federer is a very big fish in a much larger pool.  Who is bigger?  Impossible to say.

Further I believe that trying to match up two players' games without them actually playing is hopeless.  You simply can't say that Federer wouldn't have been able to handle Sampras serve.  Or that Sampras wouldn't have been able to handle Nadal's topspin to the ad court.  Player's games are always more than the sum of the visible parts.

Nevertheless, I am a fan of the GOAT game.  I find it plausible to suppose that even though Laver won 2 grand slams (the first didn't count since the best players weren't playing) and was more dominant than Federer at a later age, it's possible to say that Federer was better because the talent pool he faced is so much deeper.  The thing to recognize is that statistics are limited and choosing the stats to count is entirely subjective.

I have actually put together a number of measures.  One of the simplest is what I call the #1 index.  It starts with a list of yearend #1 players (a somewhat controversial list - who was #1 in 1946? - depends who you ask).  I compiled my list by taking the average of expert opinion (other such lists).  Then I assign a "depth" number to each year.  My #1 list starts in 1877 (the first year of wimbledon) and goes to 2010.  1877 gets a value of 1, 1878 gets a value of 2, etc.  2010 gets a value of 134.  So Nadal was number one in 2008 (132 pts) and 2010 (134 pts) gets a total of 266 pts.  Then I ranked the players in order by points.

Here's the list:

Rank	Player	#	index
1	Sampras	6	717
2	Federer	5	651
3	Gonzales	8	643
4	Laver	5	455
5	Borg	4	410
6	Kramer	5	371
7	Rosewall	4	346
8	Tilden	7	334
9	Lendl	3	330
10	Budge	5	323
11	McEnroe	3	320
12	Connors	3	304
13	Riggs	4	275
14	Nadal	2	266
15	Hewitt	2	251
16	Vines	4	236
17	Edberg	2	229
18	Newcombe	2	189
19	Cochet	3	159
20	Doherty, HL	5	140
21	Roddick	1	127
22	Kuerten	1	124
23	Agassi	1	123
24	Courier	1	116
25	Becker	1	113
26	Wilander	1	112
27	Lacoste	2	101
28	Larned	3	99
29	Ashe	1	99
30	Nastase	1	97
31	Smith	1	96
32	Doherty, R	4	90
33	Murray	2	83
34	Johnston	2	82
35	Wilding	2	73
36	Kovacs	1	67
37	Brookes	2	66
38	Renshaw, W	7	58
39	Perry	1	58
40	Crawford	1	57
41	Pim	3	54
42	Baddeley	3	51
43	Williams	1	40
44	McLoughlin	1	38
45	Gore, A	1	25
46	Hamilton	1	14
47	Renshaw, E	1	12
48	Lawford	1	11
49	Hartley	2	7
50	Hadow	1	2
51	Gore, SW	1	1

The index is based on the following list of number 1's

 

Year	Charles	age	index value
1877	Gore, SW	27	1
1878	Hadow	23	2
1879	Hartley	30	3
1880	Hartley	31	4
1881	Renshaw, W	20	5
1882	Renshaw, W	21	6
1883	Renshaw, W	22	7
1884	Renshaw, W	23	8
1885	Renshaw, W	24	9
1886	Renshaw, W	25	10
1887	Lawford	36	11
1888	Renshaw, E	27	12
1889	Renshaw, W	28	13
1890	Hamilton	26	14
1891	Baddeley	19	15
1892	Baddeley	20	16
1893	Pim	24	17
1894	Pim	25	18
1895	Pim	26	19
1896	Baddeley	24	20
1897	Doherty, R	25	21
1898	Doherty, R	26	22
1899	Doherty, R	27	23
1900	Doherty, R	28	24
1901	Gore, A	33	25
1902	Doherty, HL	27	26
1903	Doherty, HL	28	27
1904	Doherty, HL	29	28
1905	Doherty, HL	30	29
1906	Doherty, HL	31	30
1907	Brookes	30	31
1908	Larned	36	32
1909	Larned	37	33
1910	Larned	38	34
1911	Brookes	34	35
1912	Wilding	29	36
1913	Wilding	30	37
1914	McLoughlin	24	38
1915	Johnston	21	39
1916	Williams	25	40
1917	Murray	25	41
1918	Murray	26	42
1919	Johnston	25	43
1920	Tilden	27	44
1921	Tilden	28	45
1922	Tilden	29	46
1923	Tilden	30	47
1924	Tilden	31	48
1925	Tilden	32	49
1926	LaCoste	22	50
1927	LaCoste	23	51
1928	Cochet	27	52
1929	Cochet	28	53
1930	Cochet	29	54
1931	Tilden	38	55
1932	Vines	21	56
1933	Crawford	25	57
1934	Perry	25	58
1935	Vines	24	59
1936	Vines	25	60
1937	Vines	26	61
1938	Budge	23	62
1939	Budge	24	63
1940	Budge	25	64
1941	Riggs	23	65
1942	Budge	27	66
1943	Kovacs	24	67
1944	Budge	29	68
1945	Riggs	27	69
1946	Riggs	28	70
1947	Riggs	29	71
1948	Kramer	27	72
1949	Kramer	28	73
1950	Kramer	29	74
1951	Kramer	30	75
1952	Gonzales	24	76
1953	Kramer	32	77
1954	Gonzales	26	78
1955	Gonzales	27	79
1956	Gonzales	28	80
1957	Gonzales	29	81
1958	Gonzales	30	82
1959	Gonzales	31	83
1960	Gonzales	32	84
1961	Rosewall	27	85
1962	Rosewall	28	86
1963	Rosewall	29	87
1964	Rosewall	30	88
1965	Laver	27	89
1966	Laver	28	90
1967	Laver	29	91
1968	Laver	30	92
1969	Laver	31	93
1970	Newcombe	26	94
1971	Newcombe	27	95
1972	Smith	25	96
1973	Nastase	27	97
1974	Connors	22	98
1975	Ashe	32	99
1976	Connors	24	100
1977	Borg	21	101
1978	Borg	22	102
1979	Borg	23	103
1980	Borg	24	104
1981	McEnroe	22	105
1982	Connors	30	106
1983	McEnroe	24	107
1984	McEnroe	25	108
1985	Lendl	25	109
1986	Lendl	26	110
1987	Lendl	27	111
1988	Wilander	24	112
1989	Becker	22	113
1990	Edberg	25	114
1991	Edberg	26	115
1992	Courier	22	116
1993	Sampras	22	117
1994	Sampras	23	118
1995	Sampras	24	119
1996	Sampras	25	120
1997	Sampras	26	121
1998	Sampras	27	122
1999	Agassi	29	123
2000	Kuerten	24	124
2001	Hewitt	20	125
2002	Hewitt	21	126
2003	Roddick	21	127
2004	Federer	23	128
2005	Federer	24	129
2006	Federer	25	130
2007	Federer	26	131
2008	Nadal	22	132
2009	Federer	28	133
2010	Nadal	24	134